Analysis of flood warning and evacuation efficiency by comparing damage and life-loss estimates with real consequences related to the São Francisco tailings dam failure in Brazil

Abstract. Using mathematical modelling and computer simulations, economic damages and life loss estimates are results that, when prospectively designed based on the comparison of different flood alert scenarios that can be implemented, provide important insights for the elaboration of more robust alerts and the most effective emergency planning. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the use of flood damage and life loss models in floods caused by tailings dams through the application of these models in the real case of the São Francisco dam failure, which occurred in January 2007 in the city of Miraí, in Brazil. The models applied showed agreement with the actual damage observed, and the impact of different lower efficient alert systems showed more catastrophic scenarios in terms of loss of life. The results of this work indicate the potential benefits of using these consequences in risk assessment and may help the brazilian and international legislation on dam safety in new regulations.