03 Jan 2023
 | 03 Jan 2023

Analysis of flood warning and evacuation efficiency by comparing damage and life-loss estimates with real consequences related to the São Francisco tailings dam failure in Brazil

André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério

Abstract. Using mathematical modelling and computer simulations, economic damages and life loss estimates are results that, when prospectively designed based on the comparison of different flood alert scenarios that can be implemented, provide important insights for the elaboration of more robust alerts and the most effective emergency planning. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the use of flood damage and life loss models in floods caused by tailings dams through the application of these models in the real case of the São Francisco dam failure, which occurred in January 2007 in the city of Miraí, in Brazil. The models applied showed agreement with the actual damage observed, and the impact of different lower efficient alert systems showed more catastrophic scenarios in terms of loss of life. The results of this work indicate the potential benefits of using these consequences in risk assessment and may help the brazilian and international legislation on dam safety in new regulations.

André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1393', Darren Lumbroso, 01 Feb 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', André Felipe Rocha, 07 Feb 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1393', Lukas Riedel, 17 Feb 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', André Felipe Rocha, 01 Mar 2023

André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério

Data sets

HEC-RAS Model André Felipe Rocha da Silva!AtLNxPU-2kOTgdIDYT1Lf6BXWiTQIA?e=pSsSs5

HEC-LifeSim Model André Felipe Rocha da Silva!AtLNxPU-2kOTgdICw9C9GLm4vUfFEg?e=iMs2YC

Shapefiles André Felipe Rocha da Silva!AtLNxPU-2kOTgdIGTwCT6f2akuxQmw?e=5jJI4D

Scripts André Felipe Rocha da Silva!AtLNxPU-2kOTgdIEuFXmij6LNCsEqA?e=qojyLF

Excel André Felipe Rocha da Silva!AtLNxPU-2kOTgdIFwAn8Ap-2F-QCjA?e=28xU1L

André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério


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Short summary
This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models well represented the event and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. It highlights that their use may be considered an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.