The Mediterranean forecasting system. Part I: evolution and performance

Abstract. The Mediterranean Forecasting Systems produces operational analyses, reanalyses and 10-day forecasts for many Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs), from currents, temperature to wind waves and pelagic biogeochemistry. The products are available at a horizontal resolution of 1/24 degrees (approximately 4 km) and 141 unevenly spaced vertical levels.

The core of the Mediterranean Forecasting System is constituted by the physical (PHY), the biogeochemical (BIO) and the wave (WAV) components coupled offline, consisting of both numerical models and data assimilation modules. The 3 components together constitute the so-called Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Center (Med-MFC) of the Copernicus Marine Service.

Daily 10-day forecasts are produced by the PHY, BIO and WAV components as well as analyses, while reanalyses are produced for the past 30 years about every ~3 years and extended (yearly). The modelling systems, their coupling strategy and evolution is illustrated in detail. For the first time, the quality of the products is documented in terms of skill metrics evaluated on a common three-year period (2018–2020), giving the first complete assessment of uncertainties for all the Mediterranean environmental variable analyses.