Loading [MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/fonts/TeX/fontdata.js
Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-914
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-914
15 Sep 2022
 | 15 Sep 2022

Understanding pattern scaling errors across a range of emissions pathways

Christopher D. Wells, Lawrence S. Jackson, Amanda C. Maycock, and Piers M. Forster

Abstract. The regional impacts of multiple possible future emission scenarios can be estimated by combining a few Earth System Model (ESM) simulations with a linear pattern scaling model such as MESMER which uses the pattern of local temperature responses per degree global warming. Here we use MESMER to emulate the future regional pattern of surface temperature response based on historical single-forcer and future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) CMIP6 simulations. Pattern scaling errors are decomposed into two components: differences in scaling patterns between scenarios, and intrinsic timeseries differences between local and global responses in the target scenario. The timeseries error is relatively small for high-emissions scenarios, contributing around 20 % of the total error, but is similar in magnitude to the pattern error for lower-emission scenarios. This irreducible timeseries error limits the efficacy of pattern scaling for emulating strong mitigation pathways and reduces the dependence on the predictor pattern used. The results help guide the choice of predictor scenarios and where to target introducing other dependent variables beyond global surface temperature into pattern scaling models.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Share

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

17 Aug 2023
Understanding pattern scaling errors across a range of emissions pathways
Christopher D. Wells, Lawrence S. Jackson, Amanda C. Maycock, and Piers M. Forster
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 817–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-817-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-817-2023, 2023
Short summary
Download

The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
There are lots of possibilities for future emissions, with different impacts in different...
Share