12 Aug 2022
12 Aug 2022

The historical ozone trends simulated with the SOCOLv4 and their comparison with observations and reanalysis

Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel1,2,, Eugene Rozanov1,2,3,, Timofei Sukhodolov1,2,4,, ‪Tatiana Egorova1, Jan Sedlacek1, William Ball5,, and Thomas Peter2 Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel et al.
  • 1Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos, Switzerland
  • 2Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science (IAC), ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
  • 3Saint Petersburg State University, Saint Petersburg, Russia
  • 4Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
  • 5Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, TU Delft, Delft, Netherlands
  • These authors contributed equally to this work.
  • deceased

Abstract. There is evidence that the ozone layer has begun to recover owing to the ban on the production of halogen-containing ozone-depleting substances (hODS) accomplished by the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments (MPA). However, recent studies, while reporting an increase in tropospheric ozone and confirming the ozone recovery in the upper stratosphere, also indicate a continuing decline in the lower tropical and mid-latitudinal stratospheric ozone. While these are indications derived from observations, they are not reproduced by current global chemistry-climate models (CCMs), which show positive or near-zero trends for ozone in the lower stratosphere. This makes it difficult to robustly establish ozone recovery and has sparked debate about the ability of contemporary CCMs to simulate future ozone trends. We applied the new Earth system model SOCOLv4 to calculate long-term ozone trends and compare them with trends derived from observations and reanalyses. The analysis is performed separately for the ozone depletion [1985–1997] and the ozone recovery [1998–2018] periods. Within the 1998–2018 period, SOCOLv4 shows clear ozone recovery in the mesosphere, upper and middle stratosphere; no significant ozone trend in the extra-polar lower stratosphere; and a steady increase in the tropospheric ozone. However, the lower stratospheric ozone trends remain controversial because the reanalysis datasets and SOCOLv4 results suggest slightly negative but insignificant trends which do not agree with some observation composite analysis. The obtained pattern of ozone trends is in general agreement with observations and reanalysis data sets, confirming that modern chemistry-climate models such as SOCOLv4 are generally capable of simulating the observed ozone changes, justifying their use to project the future evolution of the ozone layer.

Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-701', Anonymous Referee #1, 23 Sep 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-701', Anonymous Referee #2, 27 Sep 2022

Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel et al.

Arseniy Karagodin-Doyennel et al.


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Short summary
Applying DLM, we confirm near-global ozone recovery [55N–55S] in the mesosphere, upper and middle stratosphere, as well as a steady increase in tropospheric ozone. We also show that modern CCMs, such as SOCOLv4, still cannot properly reproduce the observed trends in extratropical low stratospheric ozone, exhibiting weak and non-significant trends. Nevertheless, the obtained pattern of ozone trends in SOCOLv4 is generally consistent with observations and reanalysis data sets.