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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-590
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-590
18 Aug 2022
 | 18 Aug 2022

Observed and Predicted Trends in Icelandic Snow Conditions for the period 1930–2100

Darri Eythorsson, Sigurdur Magnus Gardarsson, Andri Gunnarsson, and Oli Gretar Blondal Sveinsson

Abstract. This study presents an estimate of historical snow conditions in Iceland and a projection of these conditions, given different emission scenarios. Historical snow conditions were estimated using in situ observations from manned meteorological stations over the period 1930–2021 and by remote sensing observations from the MODIS instruments over the period 2001–2021. Historical and future climate conditions, as described by each of the 21 Global Circulation Models (GCM’s) from the 5th iteration of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as contained in the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Global Daily Downscaled Projections (GDDP) dataset, were used to simulate snow conditions in Iceland over the period 1950–2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP45 and RCP85 with the Snow17 model. The results show an increase in the average annual Snow Cover Frequency (SCF) over the historical record detected both in the in-situ (1930–2021) and remotely sensed data (2001–2021). Average annual snow depth measurements also revealed an increasing trend over the historical record. Simulated snow conditions show a substantial decrease in both Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) and SCF over the period 1950–2100, a trend more pronounced under RCP85 as compared to RCP45.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

10 Jan 2023
Observed and predicted trends in Icelandic snow conditions for the period 1930–2100
Darri Eythorsson, Sigurdur M. Gardarsson, Andri Gunnarsson, and Oli Gretar Blondal Sveinsson
The Cryosphere, 17, 51–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-51-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-51-2023, 2023
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

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In this study we researched past and predicted snow conditions in Iceland based on manual snow...
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