18 Jul 2022
18 Jul 2022
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).

Celestial Mechanics and Estimating the Termination of the Holocene

John Abele Parmentola John Abele Parmentola
  • The RAND Corporation, 1776 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90401 USA

Abstract. This paper addresses several issues concerning Milankovitch Theory and its relationship to paleoclimate data over the last 800,000 years. A model is presented that deconvolutes the precession index (precession modulated by the eccentricity) and the obliquity contributions to the percentage change between successive mean-daily-insolation minima and maxima. The sum of these contributions is in close agreement with the corresponding benchmark calculation of J. Laskar et al. The model predictions indicate that the precession index contribution dominates such insolation changes, and its time-dependent behavior correlates with the occurrence of interglacial and glacial periods and temperature trends during these periods. Best fit curves to the separate contributions appear as quasiperiodic waves that correlate with interglacial initiations and terminations through their constructive and destructive interference. However, a comparison of model predictions with the EPICA Dome C (EDC) data indicates delayed inceptions for Marine Isotope Stages 18d and 13c, which have also been noted by Parrenin et al. through a comparison of LR04 benthic δ18O and EDC ice core datasets. Finally, the model enables the classification of interglacial periods into two distinct types that approximately account for their durations. This classification also enables a low-resolution estimation of the Holocene termination based solely on celestial mechanical forcing.

John Abele Parmentola

Status: open (until 12 Sep 2022)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-569', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Aug 2022 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-569', Anonymous Referee #2, 15 Aug 2022 reply

John Abele Parmentola

John Abele Parmentola


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Short summary
This research provides new insights into the recurrence of ice ages over the last 800,000 years. It also addresses when, if at all, our planet could descend into the next glacial period. The paper provides a new low-resolution estimate for the termination of the current warm period to occur within the next 500 years based solely on the earth's celestial motions. Such a significant temperature descent (typically -100 C for an ice age) would have grave consequences for civilization's survival.