Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-563
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-563
26 Jul 2022
 | 26 Jul 2022

Impact of rupture complexity on seismic hazard: Case of the 2018 Mw7.5 Palu earthquake

Liqing Jiao, Teng Wang, Guangcai Feng, Paul Tapponnier, Andrean V. H. Simanjuntak, and Chung-Han Chan

Abstract. Rupture complexity results in difficulty with quantifying seismic hazards, such as the probability of an earthquake on multiple segments in an active fault system and spatial distribution of the fault displacement on the surface. Here we propose a dynamic model to explain rupture complexity. To confirm this model’s credibility, we used it to explain the rupture behavior of the 2018 Mw7.5 Palu earthquake, which splayed along several sub-fault planes on the surface. The Palu event initiated on an unidentified fault and propagated on a curved plane on the Palu-Koro and Matano faults. According to the Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data, both principal (on-fault) and distributed (off-fault) faulting were identified, and spatial displacement on the surface could be evaluated. To model the complex geometry of the coseismic rupture plane and corresponding deformation, we proposed a dynamic model through the discrete element method. Our model demonstrated rupture along a planar fault at depth and several splay faultings with various deformation on the surface, corresponding to the observations. The simulations represented temporal rupture behavior that covers several earthquake cycles and probability of superficial fault displacement that shed light on subsequent seismic hazard assessment and probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis, respectively.

Liqing Jiao, Teng Wang, Guangcai Feng, Paul Tapponnier, Andrean V. H. Simanjuntak, and Chung-Han Chan

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-563', Anonymous Referee #1, 11 Oct 2022
  • EC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-563', Oded Katz, 02 Apr 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on EC1', Chung-Han Chan, 19 Apr 2023

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-563', Anonymous Referee #1, 11 Oct 2022
  • EC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-563', Oded Katz, 02 Apr 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on EC1', Chung-Han Chan, 19 Apr 2023
Liqing Jiao, Teng Wang, Guangcai Feng, Paul Tapponnier, Andrean V. H. Simanjuntak, and Chung-Han Chan
Liqing Jiao, Teng Wang, Guangcai Feng, Paul Tapponnier, Andrean V. H. Simanjuntak, and Chung-Han Chan

Viewed

Total article views: 728 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
505 202 21 728 7 14
  • HTML: 505
  • PDF: 202
  • XML: 21
  • Total: 728
  • BibTeX: 7
  • EndNote: 14
Views and downloads (calculated since 26 Jul 2022)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 26 Jul 2022)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 661 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 661 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 01 Mar 2024
Download
Short summary
It is always difficult to quantify seismic hazard for a region with a complex fault system. Thus, we proposed a physics-based model and confirm its credibility through fitting a case of an Indonesian earthquake. Our model could be further applied for evaluating potential seismic hazard in strong ground shaking and fault displacement.