26 Jul 2022
26 Jul 2022
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Impact of rupture complexity on seismic hazard: Case of the 2018 Mw7.5 Palu earthquake

Liqing Jiao1,2, Teng Wang3, Guangcai Feng4, Paul Tapponnier5, Andrean V. H. Simanjuntak6, and Chung-Han Chan7,8 Liqing Jiao et al.
  • 1SinoProbe Center, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, China
  • 2Institute of Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, China
  • 3School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
  • 4Department of Geomatics, Central South University, Changsha, China
  • 5National Institute of Natural Hazards, Beijing, China
  • 6Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysical Agency of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia
  • 7Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
  • 8Earthquake-Disaster & Risk Evaluation and Management (E-DREaM) Center, National Central University, Taoyuan, Taiwan

Abstract. Rupture complexity results in difficulty with quantifying seismic hazards, such as the probability of an earthquake on multiple segments in an active fault system and spatial distribution of the fault displacement on the surface. Here we propose a dynamic model to explain rupture complexity. To confirm this model’s credibility, we used it to explain the rupture behavior of the 2018 Mw7.5 Palu earthquake, which splayed along several sub-fault planes on the surface. The Palu event initiated on an unidentified fault and propagated on a curved plane on the Palu-Koro and Matano faults. According to the Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data, both principal (on-fault) and distributed (off-fault) faulting were identified, and spatial displacement on the surface could be evaluated. To model the complex geometry of the coseismic rupture plane and corresponding deformation, we proposed a dynamic model through the discrete element method. Our model demonstrated rupture along a planar fault at depth and several splay faultings with various deformation on the surface, corresponding to the observations. The simulations represented temporal rupture behavior that covers several earthquake cycles and probability of superficial fault displacement that shed light on subsequent seismic hazard assessment and probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis, respectively.

Liqing Jiao et al.

Status: open (until 21 Dec 2022)

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Liqing Jiao et al.

Liqing Jiao et al.


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Short summary
It is always difficult to quantify seismic hazard for a region with a complex fault system. Thus, we proposed a physics-based model and confirm its credibility through fitting a case of an Indonesian earthquake. Our model could be further applied for evaluating potential seismic hazard in strong ground shaking and fault displacement.