Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-541
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-541
13 Jul 2022
 | 13 Jul 2022

Forecasting the cost of drought events in France by super learning

Geoffrey Ecoto and Antoine Chambaz

Abstract. Drought events are the second most expensive type of natural disaster within the legal framework of the French natural disasters compensation scheme. In recent years, droughts have been remarkable in their geographical scale and intensity. We develop a new methodology to forecast the cost of a drought event in France. The methodology hinges on super learning and takes into account the complex dependence structure induced in the data by the spatial and temporal nature of drought events.

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Geoffrey Ecoto and Antoine Chambaz

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-541', Anonymous Referee #1, 30 Jul 2022
    • CC1: 'Reply on RC1', Antoine Chambaz, 31 Aug 2022
      • AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Geoffrey Ecoto, 13 Sep 2022
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Geoffrey Ecoto, 13 Sep 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-541', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Aug 2022
    • CC2: 'Reply on RC2', Antoine Chambaz, 31 Aug 2022
      • AC2: 'Reply on CC2', Geoffrey Ecoto, 13 Sep 2022
      • AC4: 'Reply on CC2', Geoffrey Ecoto, 13 Sep 2022
      • AC5: 'Reply on CC2', Geoffrey Ecoto, 13 Sep 2022
    • AC6: 'Reply on RC2', Geoffrey Ecoto, 13 Sep 2022

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-541', Anonymous Referee #1, 30 Jul 2022
    • CC1: 'Reply on RC1', Antoine Chambaz, 31 Aug 2022
      • AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Geoffrey Ecoto, 13 Sep 2022
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Geoffrey Ecoto, 13 Sep 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-541', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Aug 2022
    • CC2: 'Reply on RC2', Antoine Chambaz, 31 Aug 2022
      • AC2: 'Reply on CC2', Geoffrey Ecoto, 13 Sep 2022
      • AC4: 'Reply on CC2', Geoffrey Ecoto, 13 Sep 2022
      • AC5: 'Reply on CC2', Geoffrey Ecoto, 13 Sep 2022
    • AC6: 'Reply on RC2', Geoffrey Ecoto, 13 Sep 2022
Geoffrey Ecoto and Antoine Chambaz
Geoffrey Ecoto and Antoine Chambaz

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Short summary
Drought events are the second most expensive type of natural disaster within the legal framework of the French natural disasters compensation scheme. In recent years, droughts have been remarkable in their geographical scale and intensity. We develop a new methodology to forecast the cost of a drought event in France. The methodology hinges on super learning and takes into account the complex dependence structure induced in the data by the spatial and temporal nature of drought events.