The evolution of Arctic permafrost over the last three centuries
- 1Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
- 2Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- 3Paleoclimate Dynamics Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
- 4Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Technical University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- 5Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- 1Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
- 2Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- 3Paleoclimate Dynamics Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
- 4Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Technical University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- 5Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Abstract. Understanding the future evolution of permafrost requires a better understanding of its climatological past. This requires permafrost models to efficiently simulate the thermal dynamics of permafrost over the past centuries to millennia, taking into account highly uncertain soil and snow properties. In this study, we present a computationally efficient numerical permafrost model which satisfactorily reproduces the current thermal state of permafrost in the Arctic and its recent trend over the last decade. Also, the active layer dynamics and its trend is realistically captured. The performed simulations provide insights into the evolution of permafrost since the 18th century and show that permafrost on the North American continent is subject to early degradation, while permafrost on the Eurasian continent is relatively stable over the investigated 300-year period. Permafrost warming since industrialization has occurred primarily in three "hotspot" regions in northeastern Canada, northern Alaska, and, to a lesser extent, western Siberia. The extent of near-surface permafrost has changed substantially since the 18th century. In particular, loss of continuous permafrost has accelerated from low (−0.10 × 105 km2 dec−1) to moderate (−0.77 × 105 km2 dec−1) rates for the 18th and 19th centuries, respectively. In the 20th century, the loss rate nearly doubled (−1.36 × 105 km2 dec−1), with the highest near-surface permafrost losses occurring in the last 50 years. Our simulations further indicate that climate disturbances due to large volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere, can only counteract near-surface permafrost loss for a relatively short period of a few decades. Despite some limitations, the presented model shows great potential for further investigation of the climatological past of permafrost, especially in conjunction with paleoclimate modeling.
Moritz Langer et al.
Status: open
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CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-473', Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, 13 Jun 2022
reply
Dear Moritz Langer and coauthors,
I found your manuscript really interesting, particulalrly your small discussion about the effect of large volcanic eruptions on permafrost evolution. Nevertheless, I think that Figure 6 may not be the best way to display this result.
Have you consider something like Figure 1 in Tejedor et al. (2021)? I.e., have you explored the possibility of representing the permafrost extension for 3-5 years before one eruption and 3-5 years after the eruption? You can do that for all events of interest, obtaining a much clearer graph.
Also, looking forward to your simulations from the Pleistocene to the present.
Best regads,
FJCV
References
- Tejedor, E., Steiger, N., Smerdon, J. E., Serrano-Notivoli, R., & Vuille, M. (2021). Global temperature responses to large tropical volcanic eruptions in paleo data assimilation products and climate model simulations over the last millennium. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 36, e2020PA004128. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004128 .
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AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Moritz Langer, 22 Jun 2022
reply
Dear Francisco José Cuesta-Valero
Thank you for your encouraging comment. We agree that Figure 6 is not the best way to illustrate the impact of volcanic eruptions on permafrost, as details are lost in the coarse resolution of the entire time series. The reason we have not presented a specific figure on this topic is that the main focus of this study is on the general evolution of permafrost in response to long-term climatic changes. However, we also believe that the effects of short-term climatic events such as volcanic eruptions deserve more attention since this topic is surprisingly understudied in permafrost modeling. We are reluctant to shift the focus of this manuscript too far toward volcanic eruptions, but we are considering including a more detailed illustration showing the individual impacts of volcanic eruptions in the appendix. We believe that this particular topic would warrant a separate study specifically addressing the short-term impacts of volcanic eruptions.
Best regards
Moritz Langer
Moritz Langer et al.
Data sets
CryoGridLite: Model output of pan-Arctic simulations at 1° resolution from 1700 to 2020 Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Alexander Oehme https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6619260
CryoGridLite: Model input for pan-Arctic simulations at 1° resolution from 1700 to 2020 Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Alexander Oehme https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6619212
Model code and software
CryoGridLite: Model code for pan-Arctic simulations at 1° resolution from 1700 to 2020 Moritz Langer, Jan Nitzbon, Alexander Oehme https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6619537
Moritz Langer et al.
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