Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-324
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-324
30 May 2022
 | 30 May 2022

Rapid Sea Ice Changes in the Future Barents Sea

Ole Rieke, Marius Årthun, and Jakob Simon Dörr

Abstract. Winter Arctic sea ice loss is strongest in the Barents Sea. The anthropogenic ice decline is superimposed by pronounced internal variability that represents a large source of uncertainty in future climate projections. A notable manifestation of internal variability are periods of rapid ice loss or growth that greatly exceed the anthropogenic trend. These rapid ice change events are associated with large displacements of the sea ice edge which could potentially have both local and remote impacts on the climate system. In this study we accordingly present the first investigation of the frequency and drivers of these rapid ice change events in the future Barents Sea, using multi-member ensemble simulations from CMIP5 and CMIP6. A majority of rapid sea ice changes are triggered by trends in ocean heat transport or surface heat fluxes. Rapid ice change events are a common feature of the future Barents Sea until the region becomes close to ice free. As their evolution over time is closely tied to the average sea ice conditions, rapid ice changes in the Barents Sea serve as a precursor for future changes in adjacent seas.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

04 Apr 2023
Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea
Ole Rieke, Marius Årthun, and Jakob Simon Dörr
The Cryosphere, 17, 1445–1456, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023, 2023
Short summary

Ole Rieke et al.

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-324', Anonymous Referee #1, 11 Jul 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Ole Rieke, 27 Sep 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-324', Anonymous Referee #2, 01 Sep 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Ole Rieke, 27 Sep 2022

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-324', Anonymous Referee #1, 11 Jul 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Ole Rieke, 27 Sep 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-324', Anonymous Referee #2, 01 Sep 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Ole Rieke, 27 Sep 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (14 Oct 2022) by Jari Haapala
AR by Ole Rieke on behalf of the Authors (24 Oct 2022)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (15 Nov 2022) by Jari Haapala
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (28 Dec 2022) by Jari Haapala
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (19 Jan 2023)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (15 Feb 2023)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (03 Mar 2023) by Jari Haapala
AR by Ole Rieke on behalf of the Authors (10 Mar 2023)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

04 Apr 2023
Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea
Ole Rieke, Marius Årthun, and Jakob Simon Dörr
The Cryosphere, 17, 1445–1456, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023, 2023
Short summary

Ole Rieke et al.

Ole Rieke et al.

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
The Barents Sea is the area of most intense winter sea ice loss and future projections show a continued decline towards ice-free conditions by the end of this century, but with large interannual to decadal fluctuations. Here we use climate model simulations to look at the occurrence and drivers of rapid ice change events in the Barents Sea that are much stronger than the average ice loss. A better understanding of these events will contribute to improved sea ice predictions in the Barents Sea.