Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-167
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-167
 
19 Apr 2022
19 Apr 2022

Potential for bias in effective climate sensitivity from state-dependent energetic balance

Benjamin Sanderson1 and Maria Rugenstein2 Benjamin Sanderson and Maria Rugenstein
  • 1CICERO, Oslo, Norway
  • 2Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO, USA

Abstract. To estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity, a common approach is to linearly extrapolate temperatures as a function of top of atmosphere energetic imbalance (Effective Climate Sensitivity). In this study, we consider an alternative approach for estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity through Bayesian calibration of a multiple timescale simple climate model. Results suggest potential biases in effective sensitivity estimates in the case of particular models where radiative tendencies imply energetic imbalances which differ between pre-industrial and quadrupled CO2 states. These biases imply the need for reconsideration of some model published values of climate sensitivity, and the presence of radiative imbalances in a number of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models underlines the urgent requirement for operational climate sensitivity experiments on millennial timescales to assess if such biases exist in estimates of climate sensitivity in the wider CMIP ensembles.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

19 Dec 2022
Potential for bias in effective climate sensitivity from state-dependent energetic imbalance
Benjamin M. Sanderson and Maria Rugenstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1715–1736, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1715-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1715-2022, 2022
Short summary

Benjamin Sanderson and Maria Rugenstein

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on "Potential bias in effective climate sensitivity from state-dependent energetic balance"', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Jun 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Ben Sanderson, 05 Sep 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-167', Robbin Bastiaansen, 13 Jun 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Ben Sanderson, 05 Sep 2022

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on "Potential bias in effective climate sensitivity from state-dependent energetic balance"', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Jun 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Ben Sanderson, 05 Sep 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-167', Robbin Bastiaansen, 13 Jun 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Ben Sanderson, 05 Sep 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (08 Sep 2022) by Christian Franzke
AR by Ben Sanderson on behalf of the Authors (10 Oct 2022)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (12 Oct 2022) by Christian Franzke
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (21 Oct 2022)
RR by Robbin Bastiaansen (24 Oct 2022)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (25 Oct 2022) by Christian Franzke
AR by Ben Sanderson on behalf of the Authors (08 Nov 2022)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (09 Nov 2022) by Christian Franzke

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

19 Dec 2022
Potential for bias in effective climate sensitivity from state-dependent energetic imbalance
Benjamin M. Sanderson and Maria Rugenstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1715–1736, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1715-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1715-2022, 2022
Short summary

Benjamin Sanderson and Maria Rugenstein

Model code and software

Code for EGUSPHERE-2022-167 Benjamin Sanderson https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6424714

Benjamin Sanderson and Maria Rugenstein

Viewed

Total article views: 624 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
461 150 13 624 6 5
  • HTML: 461
  • PDF: 150
  • XML: 13
  • Total: 624
  • BibTeX: 6
  • EndNote: 5
Views and downloads (calculated since 19 Apr 2022)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 19 Apr 2022)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 566 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 566 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 19 Dec 2022
Download

The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is a measure of how much long term warming should be expected in response to a change in greenhouse gas concentrations. It is generally calculated in climate models by extrapolating global average temperatures to a point of where the planet is no longer a net absorber of energy. Here we show that some climate models experience energy leaks which change as the planet warms, undermining the standard approach and biasing some existing model estimates of ECS.