Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-148
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-148
 
07 Apr 2022
07 Apr 2022
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).

Jet stream variability in a polar warming scenario – a laboratory perspective

Costanza Rodda1,2, Uwe Harlander1, and Miklos Vincze3,4 Costanza Rodda et al.
  • 1Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus–Senftenberg, Department of Aerodynamics and Fluid Mechanics, Cottbus, D-03046, Germany
  • 2Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, England, United Kingdom
  • 3von Kármán Laboratory of Environmental Flows; Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest H-1117, Hungary
  • 4MTA-ELTE Theoretical Physics Research Group; Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest H-1117, Hungary

Abstract. We report on a set of laboratory experiments to investigate the effect of polar warming on the mid-latitude jet stream. Our results show that a progressive decrease of the meridional temperature difference slows down the eastward propagation of the jet stream and complexifies its structure. Temperature variability decreases in relation to the laboratory ‘Arctic warming’ only at locations representing the Earth’s polar and mid-latitudes, which are influenced by the jet stream, whilst such trend reverses in the equatorial region south of the simulated subtropical jet. The reduced variability results in narrower temperature distributions and hence milder extreme events. However, our experiments also show that the frequency of such events increases at polar and mid-latitudes with decreased meridional temperature difference, whilst it decreases towards the equators. Despite missing land-sea contrast in the laboratory model, we find qualitatively similar trends of temperature variability and extreme events in the experimental data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data.

Costanza Rodda et al.

Status: open (until 03 Jun 2022)

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Costanza Rodda et al.

Costanza Rodda et al.

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Short summary
We report on a set of laboratory experiments that reproduce a global warming scenario. The experiments show that the decreased temperature difference between the poles and equator slows down the eastward propagation of the mid-latitude weather patterns. Another consequence is that the temperature variations diminish and hence temperature extreme events might become milder in a global warming scenario. Our experiments also show that the frequency of such events increases.