Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1281
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1281
07 Dec 2022
 | 07 Dec 2022

The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the mid-Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2

Xin Ren, Daniel J. Lunt, Erica Hendy, Anna von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Charles J. R. Williams, Christian Stepanek, Chuncheng Guo, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Julia C. Tindall, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Masa Kageyama, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Ran Feng, Wing-Le Chan, W. Richard Peltier, Xiangyu Li, Youichi Kamae, Zhongshi Zhang, and Alan M. Haywood

Abstract. The Maritime Continent (MC) forms the western boundary of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and relatively small changes in this region can impact the climate locally and remotely. In the mid-Pliocene (from 3.264 to 3.025 million years before present), atmospheric CO2 concentrations were ~ 400 ppm, and the subaerial Sunda and Sahul shelves made the land-sea distribution of the MC different to today. Topographic changes and elevated levels of CO2, combined with other forcings, are therefore expected to have driven a substantial climate signal in the MC region at this time. By using the results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PlioMIP2) we study the mean climatic features of the MC in the mid-Pliocene and changes in Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with respect to preindustrial. Results show a warmer and wetter mid-Pliocene climate of the MC and lower sea surface salinity in the surrounding ocean compared with preindustrial. Furthermore, we quantify the volume transfer through the ITF; although the ITF may be expected to be hindered by the subaerial shelves, 10 out of 15 models show an increased volume transport compared with preindustrial.

In order to avoid undue influence from closely-related models that are present in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we introduce a new metric – the multi-cluster mean (MCM), based on cluster analysis of the individual models. We study the effect that the choice of MCM versus the more traditional analysis of multi-model mean (MMM) and individual models has on the discrepancy between model results and reconstructed proxy data. The clusters reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the MMM, so that the MCM provides us with a new way to explore the results from model ensemble that include similar models.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

26 Oct 2023
The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2
Xin Ren, Daniel J. Lunt, Erica Hendy, Anna von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Charles J. R. Williams, Christian Stepanek, Chuncheng Guo, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Julia C. Tindall, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Masa Kageyama, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Ran Feng, Stephen Hunter, Wing-Le Chan, W. Richard Peltier, Xiangyu Li, Youichi Kamae, Zhongshi Zhang, and Alan M. Haywood
Clim. Past, 19, 2053–2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, 2023
Short summary

Xin Ren et al.

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1281', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Jan 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Xin Ren, 05 May 2023
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1281', Tripti Bhattacharya, 13 Feb 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on CC1', Xin Ren, 05 May 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1281', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Apr 2023
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Xin Ren, 05 May 2023

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1281', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Jan 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Xin Ren, 05 May 2023
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1281', Tripti Bhattacharya, 13 Feb 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on CC1', Xin Ren, 05 May 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1281', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Apr 2023
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Xin Ren, 05 May 2023

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (19 May 2023) by Aisling Dolan
AR by Xin Ren on behalf of the Authors (13 Jul 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (27 Jul 2023) by Aisling Dolan
AR by Xin Ren on behalf of the Authors (10 Aug 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (15 Sep 2023) by Aisling Dolan
AR by Xin Ren on behalf of the Authors (18 Sep 2023)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

26 Oct 2023
The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2
Xin Ren, Daniel J. Lunt, Erica Hendy, Anna von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Charles J. R. Williams, Christian Stepanek, Chuncheng Guo, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Julia C. Tindall, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Masa Kageyama, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Ran Feng, Stephen Hunter, Wing-Le Chan, W. Richard Peltier, Xiangyu Li, Youichi Kamae, Zhongshi Zhang, and Alan M. Haywood
Clim. Past, 19, 2053–2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, 2023
Short summary

Xin Ren et al.

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
We investigate the climate of the MC in the mid-Pliocene and find it is warmer and wetter and the sea surface salinity is lower compared with preindustrial. Besides, the fresh and warm water transfer through the MC was stronger in the mid-Pliocene relative to the preindustrial. In order to reduce amplification of model biases in the multimodel results, we introduce a new metric—the multi-cluster mean (MCM), which could reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the multimodel mean (MMM).