The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the mid-Pliocene: results from PlioMIP2
Abstract. The Maritime Continent (MC) forms the western boundary of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and relatively small changes in this region can impact the climate locally and remotely. In the mid-Pliocene (from 3.264 to 3.025 million years before present), atmospheric CO2 concentrations were ~ 400 ppm, and the subaerial Sunda and Sahul shelves made the land-sea distribution of the MC different to today. Topographic changes and elevated levels of CO2, combined with other forcings, are therefore expected to have driven a substantial climate signal in the MC region at this time. By using the results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PlioMIP2) we study the mean climatic features of the MC in the mid-Pliocene and changes in Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with respect to preindustrial. Results show a warmer and wetter mid-Pliocene climate of the MC and lower sea surface salinity in the surrounding ocean compared with preindustrial. Furthermore, we quantify the volume transfer through the ITF; although the ITF may be expected to be hindered by the subaerial shelves, 10 out of 15 models show an increased volume transport compared with preindustrial.
In order to avoid undue influence from closely-related models that are present in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we introduce a new metric – the multi-cluster mean (MCM), based on cluster analysis of the individual models. We study the effect that the choice of MCM versus the more traditional analysis of multi-model mean (MMM) and individual models has on the discrepancy between model results and reconstructed proxy data. The clusters reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the MMM, so that the MCM provides us with a new way to explore the results from model ensemble that include similar models.
Xin Ren et al.
Status: final response (author comments only)
RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1281', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Jan 2023
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Xin Ren, 05 May 2023
CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1281', Tripti Bhattacharya, 13 Feb 2023
- AC2: 'Reply on CC1', Xin Ren, 05 May 2023
RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1281', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Apr 2023
- AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Xin Ren, 05 May 2023
Xin Ren et al.
Xin Ren et al.
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This manuscript examines simulations of the mid-Pliocene from the PlioMIP2 models. The authors focus on the mean climate features in the maritime continent. They find a warmer and wetter mid-Pliocene climate, with a lower sea surface salinity and in general a stronger Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) in the PlioMIP2 simulations. The author also explore the use of multi-cluster mean in summarizing multiple model results and noted the advantage of this method over the traditional multiple model mean.
The manuscript is very well-written and easy to follow. The manuscript fits well with the scope of Climate of the Past. I have a few comments that need to be addressed before publication. Please see details below.