Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1006
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1006
30 Sep 2022
 | 30 Sep 2022

Peatlands and their carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes from 1990 to 2300: A process-based biogeochemistry model analysis

Bailu Zhao and Qianlai Zhuang

Abstract. Northern peatlands are a large C sink during the Holocene, but whether they will keep being a C sink under future climate change is uncertain. This study simulates the responses of northern peatlands to future climate until 2300 with a Peatland version Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (PTEM). The simulations are driven with two sets of CMIP5 climate data (IPSL-CM5A-LR and bcc-csm1-1) under three warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). Peatlands expansion, shrink, accumulation and decomposition are modeled. In the 21st century, northern peatlands are projected to be a C source of 1.2–13.3 Pg C under all climate scenarios except for RCP 2.6 of bcc-csm1-1 (a sink of 0.8 Pg C). During 2100–2300, northern peatlands under all scenarios are a C source under IPSL-CM5A-LR scenarios, being larger sources than bcc-csm1-1 scenarios (5.9–118.3 vs. 0.7–87.6 Pg C). The peatland being C sources are due to: 1) water table depth (WTD) becomes deeper and permafrost thaw increases decomposition rate; 2) net primary production (NPP) does not increase much as climate warms because peat drying suppresses net N mineralization and 3) as WTD deepens, peatlands switches from moss-herbaceous dominated to moss-woody dominated, while woody plants require more N for productivity. Under IPSL-CM5A-LR scenarios, northern peatlands remain as a C sink until pan-Arctic annual temperature reaches -2.6–-2.89°C, while this threshold is -2.09–-2.35°C under bcc-csm1-1 scenarios. This study predicts an earlier northern peatland sink to source shift than previous estimates in the literature and emphasizes the vulnerability of northern peatlands to climate change.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

16 Jan 2023
Peatlands and their carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes from 1990 to 2300: a process-based biogeochemistry model analysis
Bailu Zhao and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 20, 251–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-251-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-251-2023, 2023
Short summary

Bailu Zhao and Qianlai Zhuang

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1006', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Nov 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Bailu Zhao, 30 Nov 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1006', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Nov 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Bailu Zhao, 30 Nov 2022
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1006', Anonymous Referee #3, 17 Nov 2022
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Bailu Zhao, 30 Nov 2022

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1006', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Nov 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Bailu Zhao, 30 Nov 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1006', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Nov 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Bailu Zhao, 30 Nov 2022
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1006', Anonymous Referee #3, 17 Nov 2022
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Bailu Zhao, 30 Nov 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (05 Dec 2022) by Albert C. Brangarí
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (11 Dec 2022) by Michael Bahn (Co-editor-in-chief)
AR by Bailu Zhao on behalf of the Authors (11 Dec 2022)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (12 Dec 2022) by Albert C. Brangarí
ED: Publish as is (14 Dec 2022) by Michael Bahn (Co-editor-in-chief)
AR by Bailu Zhao on behalf of the Authors (20 Dec 2022)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

16 Jan 2023
Peatlands and their carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes from 1990 to 2300: a process-based biogeochemistry model analysis
Bailu Zhao and Qianlai Zhuang
Biogeosciences, 20, 251–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-251-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-251-2023, 2023
Short summary

Bailu Zhao and Qianlai Zhuang

Bailu Zhao and Qianlai Zhuang

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Latest update: 07 Oct 2023
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
In this study, we use a process-based model to simulate the northern peatland's C dynamics in response future climate change during 1990–2300. Northern peatlands are projected to be a C source under all climate scenarios except for the mildest one before 2100, and C sources under all scenarios afterwards. We find northern peatlands are a C sink until pan-Arctic annual temperature reaches -2.09~ -2.89 °C. This study emphasizes the vulnerability of northern peatlands to climate change.