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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1991-962X</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-958</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>New framework for benchmarking decadal predictions leveraging the PCMDI Metric Package with interactive visualization</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Choi</surname>
<given-names>Jung</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lee</surname>
<given-names>Jiwoo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0016-7199</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chang</surname>
<given-names>Kristin</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ullrich</surname>
<given-names>Paul A.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4118-4590</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gleckler</surname>
<given-names>Peter J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jun</surname>
<given-names>Sang-Yoon</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Seoul National University, Seoul, 08826, South Korea</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, 94550, United States</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>UC Davis, Davis, 95616, United States</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon, 21990, Korea</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>04</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>25</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Jung Choi et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-958/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-958/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-958/egusphere-2026-958.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-958/egusphere-2026-958.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Reliable climate predictions across multiple timescales are increasingly critical as climate-related risks continue to rise. With the growing number and diversity of climate prediction systems, systematic intercomparison has become essential. Here, we present a comprehensive evaluation framework based on the PCMDI Metric Package to assess the performance of multiple decadal climate prediction systems. Unlike uninitialized simulations, initialized predictions exhibit bias and predictive skill that evolve with forecast lead time. To address this, we introduce (1) model-by-lead-time portrait plots, which efficiently summarize metrics of global temperature, precipitation, and Arctic/Antarctic sea-ice extent, and (2) an HTML-based interactive visualization platform that provides detailed regional and seasonal diagnostics of model bias, skill scores, and ensemble spread for each model and lead time. Comparisons with uninitialized simulations further quantify the relative impacts of initialization and external forcing on prediction skill. The proposed framework provides a scalable and transparent approach for multi-model climate prediction assessments and can be readily extended to a wide range of operational and research forecasting systems.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="25"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Research Foundation of Korea</funding-source>
<award-id>RS-2024-00342219</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory</funding-source>
<award-id>DE-AC52-07NA27344</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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