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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-799</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>From Physics to AI: A Multidisciplinary Review of Contrail Prediction Models</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhu</surname>
<given-names>Meiyin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7764-0530</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ullah</surname>
<given-names>Najeeb</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Deng</surname>
<given-names>Hongwei</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Yang</surname>
<given-names>Shengnan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ullah</surname>
<given-names>Aman</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Yin</surname>
<given-names>Jiaqi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ghani</surname>
<given-names>Muhammad Owais</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Huang</surname>
<given-names>Tianxu</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chang</surname>
<given-names>Liuyong</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>International Innovation Institute, Beihang University, Hangzhou 311115, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>AECC Shenyang Engine Research Institute, Shenyang 110015, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Aero Engine, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>20</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>70</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Meiyin Zhu et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-799/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-799/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-799/egusphere-2026-799.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-799/egusphere-2026-799.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Aviation-induced condensation trails (contrails) and contrail cirrus represent a dominant yet uncertain component of effective radiative forcing (ERF), potentially exceeding the warming impact of accumulated carbon dioxide. As the aviation sector targets climate-optimal operations by 2030, the demand for scalable, real-time contrail forecasting has driven a fundamental paradigm shift in modeling strategies. This review provides a comprehensive analysis of contrail prediction methodologies spanning eight decades, classifying the evolution into five distinct epochs: (1) Thermodynamic and Analytical Foundations (1940s&amp;ndash;1990s), rooted in the Schmidt-Appleman Criterion (SAC) for binary formation thresholds; (2) Microphysical Simulation (1990s&amp;ndash;2010s), exemplified by the Contrail Cirrus Prediction (CoCiP) and APCEMM models, which resolve complex particle dynamics and lifecycle evolution; (3) NWP-Integrated Frameworks (2000s&amp;ndash;Present), such as ECMWF IFS and WRF-Chem, which embed contrail parameterizations into global weather systems; (4) Satellite-Empirical Models, leveraging AVHRR, MODIS, and CALIOP data to establish climatological baselines and validate physical assumptions; and (5) AI-Driven and Hybrid Frontiers (2020&amp;ndash;2026), where deep learning architectures, including U-Net segmentation, Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), and the Google-DLR hybrid system, are revolutionizing real-time detection and flight attribution. By critically evaluating the trade-offs between physical interpretability and computational scalability, this paper identifies the emerging consensus that future operational systems must adopt hybrid architectures &amp;ndash; merging the robust constraints of first-principles physics with the adaptive precision of artificial intelligence &amp;ndash; to enable verifiable contrail avoidance and sustainable flight planning.</p>
</abstract>
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