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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-781</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Physically Coherent Machine Learning for Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Emulation</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wilkinson</surname>
<given-names>Hamish</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0001-3593-0502</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bates</surname>
<given-names>Paul</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9192-9963</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lucas</surname>
<given-names>Chris</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0004-7972-3945</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Quinn</surname>
<given-names>Niall</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Haigh</surname>
<given-names>Ivan D.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Collings</surname>
<given-names>Tom</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0001-8951-8265</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Watson</surname>
<given-names>Peter</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5173-9903</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Rd, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Fathom, Floor 2 Clifton Heights, Clifton, Bristol, BS8 1EJ, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, European Way, SO14 3ZH, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>National Centre for Integrated Coastal Research and Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>23</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>50</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Hamish Wilkinson et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-781/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-781/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-781/egusphere-2026-781.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-781/egusphere-2026-781.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Climate change is projected to impact tropical cyclone magnitude and frequency, with high magnitude events becoming more common. The destructive nature of event derived storm surges and associated coastal flooding necessitates risk management. However, the historic record is too short and too sparse to assess risk effectively, resulting in incomplete probability distributions of surge heights, particularly for distribution tails. Hydrodynamic simulation can fill these gaps, but the number of simulations required, both spatially and under diverse climates, coupled with their high computational cost, is prohibitive. To address this, we present an Artificial Neural Network storm surge emulator, deployed in the northwest Gulf of Mexico. This is trained on a database of hydrodynamic simulations, and outputs spatially coherent time series of surge. Our model achieves an R&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; of 0.91, with a RMSE of 13 cm when compared to an independent test set of hydrodynamic simulations, while exhibiting a computational gain factor of over 1500. Our approach is novel in its use of feature engineering to improve performance. Here variables which are physically relevant to surge are derived from commonly used features, such as wind and pressure, allowing us to maintain a simple model architecture, while steering the model towards physically coherent learning. Shapley Values are utilised for model interpretation and demonstrate that the model is making physically justified inference. Success is demonstrated by comparing our feature engineered model to a control, which engages in minimal feature engineering. The control achieves an R&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; of 0.71 and a RMSE of 23 cm only.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="50"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Natural Environment Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>NE/Y006364/1</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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<back>
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