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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-74</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Deciphering the impacts of meteorology on surface ozone variability in eastern China using explainable machine learning models</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ye</surname>
<given-names>Xingpei</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7899-5031</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhang</surname>
<given-names>Lin</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>Xiaolin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6772-0350</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lu</surname>
<given-names>Ni</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hickman</surname>
<given-names>Sebastian</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7437-0846</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Luo</surname>
<given-names>Guo</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Archibald</surname>
<given-names>Alex T.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9302-4180</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Centre for Atmospheric Science, Yusuf Hamied Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Peking University, Beijing, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Center for Environment and Health, Peking University, Beijing, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>15</day>
<month>01</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>26</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Xingpei Ye et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-74/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-74/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-74/egusphere-2026-74.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-74/egusphere-2026-74.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Understanding how meteorology influences surface ozone variability is critical for interpreting trends and designing effective air quality policies. This study employs explainable machine learning (XML) with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to interpret daily ozone variations from 2013 to 2023 across three major regions in eastern China: North China Plain (NCP), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and Pearl River Delta (PRD). An ensemble of five machine learning models (LightGBM, XGBoost, CatBoost, Random Forest, and Extra Trees) is trained using 14 meteorological variables and two temporal indicators. XML reveals nonlinear, region-specific ozone-meteorology relationships that are broadly consistent with physical understanding, while differences in SHAP attributions across algorithms highlight structural uncertainty arising from multicollinearity among input variables. We use SHAP-derived contributions to attribute warm-season ozone trends to meteorological versus non-meteorological drivers. Before 2019, ozone increases are mainly associated with the temporal proxy for non-meteorological influences (e.g., emission changes), whereas after 2019 meteorological variability dominates regional ozone trends. Exploiting the additive nature of SHAP, we develop a de-weathering framework that partitions daily ozone into a SHAP-based climatological baseline and a meteorology-induced ozone anomaly (MOA). Across all three regions, the magnitude of positive MOA events increases over 2013&amp;ndash;2023, while their frequency and duration show no significant trends, indicating a strengthening meteorological amplification of pollution episodes rather than more frequent events. Our results demonstrate both the utility and limitations of XML for disentangling meteorological drivers of ozone pollution and provide new constraints on how meteorology shapes surface ozone under China&amp;rsquo;s clean air actions.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="26"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Natural Science Foundation of China</funding-source>
<award-id>42275106</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>National Key Research and Development Program of China</funding-source>
<award-id>2023YFC3706104</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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