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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-721</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Historical and Projected Changes in Temperature&amp;ndash;Precipitation Compound Hot and Dry Extremes across Africa Based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 Ensemble Simulations</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Adigun</surname>
<given-names>Paul</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dairaku</surname>
<given-names>Koji</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ogunrinde</surname>
<given-names>Akinwale T.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Precious</surname>
<given-names>Ebiendele</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Nadeem</surname>
<given-names>Muhammad Umar</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Brhane</surname>
<given-names>Ermias Sisay</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Xue</surname>
<given-names>Xian</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1795-8656</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Engineering Mechanics and Energy, University of Tsukuba, 3F300 Tennodai 1-1-1, Tsukuba, 305-8573, Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>10</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>37</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Paul Adigun et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-721/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-721/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-721/egusphere-2026-721.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-721/egusphere-2026-721.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Compound climate extremes pose disproportionate risks to societies and ecosystems, yet their evolution across Africa remains poorly constrained. Here we present the first continent-wide, multi-generation assessment of historical and projected temperature&amp;ndash;precipitation compound hot&amp;ndash;dry extremes across Africa using CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles under the full range of emission scenarios. Observations indicate continent-wide warming of 0.21 &amp;deg;C decade-1; during 1980&amp;ndash;2020, accompanied by spatially heterogeneous precipitation trends, establishing a baseline of increasing compound vulnerability. Despite projected increases in precipitation over much of tropical Africa, both CMIP5 and CMIP6 consistently project strong intensification of compound hot&amp;ndash;dry extremes, driven primarily by accelerated warming. By mid-century (2035&amp;ndash;2065), compound hot&amp;ndash;dry frequency increases across all regions, with southern Africa experiencing 0.33&amp;ndash;0.43 hot&amp;ndash;dry months yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;; in CMIP6. By end-century (2070&amp;ndash;2100), frequencies in western and eastern southern Africa reach 0.36&amp;ndash;0.62 months yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;; under high-emission scenarios, representing more than a doubling relative to low-emission pathways. Compound event severity intensifies nonlinearly: cumulative event magnitude exceeds 10&amp;ndash;13 &amp;sigma; in southern Africa and Madagascar, while mean event duration lengthens from &amp;sim;1&amp;ndash;1.5 months historically to 4&amp;ndash;6 months under high emissions. CMIP6 systematically projects stronger increases in compound frequency, magnitude, and duration than CMIP5, reflecting enhanced land&amp;ndash;atmosphere coupling and higher climate sensitivity. Although strong mitigation substantially limits these increases, compound hot&amp;ndash;dry extremes intensify even under low-emission pathways. These results demonstrate that compound climate risk may escalate regardless of mean precipitation trends, underscoring the urgency of compound-aware adaptation strategies and the substantial mitigation benefits of limiting future climate impacts.</p>
</abstract>
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