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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-669</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Modelling the evolution of Thwaites Glacier over the 20th century</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bett</surname>
<given-names>David T.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3118-9902</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bradley</surname>
<given-names>Alexander T.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8381-5317</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Miles</surname>
<given-names>Bertie W. J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3388-4688</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Williams</surname>
<given-names>C. Rosie</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8131-4946</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Holland</surname>
<given-names>Paul R.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Arthern</surname>
<given-names>Robert J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>King’s College London, London, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>02</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>43</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 David T. Bett et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-669/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-669/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-669/egusphere-2026-669.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-669/egusphere-2026-669.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Thwaites Glacier is rapidly evolving and could make large sea-level contributions in the coming centuries, making it essential to understand the drivers of the ongoing ice loss. Sediment-core analysis suggests that Thwaites Glacier was in a relatively steady state for millennia before its western pinning point ungrounded in the 1940s. Here, we include a first analysis of 1947 aerial imagery of Thwaites Ice Shelf, which shows that it was relatively undamaged, contrasting with the highly-damaged present-day. Additionally, the main outflow and shear margin were displaced ~15 km westwards compared to the present day. We use the MITgcm-WAVI coupled ocean-ice sheet model to create example quasi-steady pre-1940s configurations for Thwaites Glacier, including a most plausible pre-1940s state, finding that healing the damaged ice shelf is necessary to achieve this. Next, we trigger ice retreat and highlight key processes as the model evolves into the present-day configuration, including ice damage, pinning-point ungrounding driven by ocean melting, and ice piracy between eastern and western parts of Thwaites Glacier. By conducting reversibility experiments during the retreat, we find that multiple quasi-steady ice-sheet states are possible under the same ocean forcing, demonstrating the potential for tipping points in the Thwaites system. Either ice damage or increased ocean forcing can eliminate these quasi-steady states, prompting retreat resembling that observed today. Taken together, these results demonstrate that the sea-level contribution from Thwaites Glacier is not simply controlled by ocean warming in the Amundsen Sea, and is highly sensitive to ice-damage feedbacks, which must be incorporated into sea-level projections.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Horizon 2020</funding-source>
<award-id>869304</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>HORIZON EUROPE European Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>101060452</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>UK Research and Innovation</funding-source>
<award-id>10048443</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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