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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-658</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Antarctic sea ice response to meltwater due to Antarctic ice sheet mass loss in a multi-model ensemble</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pauling</surname>
<given-names>Andrew G.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4545-0809</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Smith</surname>
<given-names>Inga J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Martin</surname>
<given-names>Torge</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0882-8780</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ridley</surname>
<given-names>Jeff K.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Stevens</surname>
<given-names>David P.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7283-4405</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Thomas</surname>
<given-names>Max</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Beadling</surname>
<given-names>Rebecca L.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Danek</surname>
<given-names>Christopher</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4453-1140</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hattermann</surname>
<given-names>Tore</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5538-2267</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Qian</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Marshall</surname>
<given-names>John</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Muilwijk</surname>
<given-names>Morven</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9101-6646</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Purich</surname>
<given-names>Ariaan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Swart</surname>
<given-names>Neil C.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12">
<sup>12</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Hadley Centre, UK Met Office, Exeter, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>School of Engineering, Mathematics and Physics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Earth and Environmental Science Department, Temple University, Philadelphia, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11">
<label>11</label>
<addr-line>School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment and and ARC Special Research Initiative for Securing Antarctica’s  Environmental Future, Monash University, Clayton, Kulin Nations, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff12">
<label>12</label>
<addr-line>Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>09</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>29</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Andrew G. Pauling et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-658/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-658/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-658/egusphere-2026-658.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-658/egusphere-2026-658.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>We present the first multi-model study of the Antarctic sea ice response to enhanced meltwater due to dynamic mass loss from the Antarctic ice sheet. This meltwater flux (and its future increase under global warming) is not included in the most recent state-of-the-art climate model simulations used in CMIP6, representing a missing source of freshwater to the Southern Ocean. Previous climate model simulations have shown a wide range of responses in Antarctic sea ice and climate when this missing meltwater is introduced. Here, we analyze a new suite of 11 models comprising 43 ensemble members to assess the response to 0.1 Sv of Antarctic meltwater input at the ocean surface, evenly distributed around the Antarctic coastline under pre-industrial control forcing. Antarctic sea ice area increases in all models. However, there is a wide range in the response, with annual mean increases ranging from 0.71 to 4.14 million km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;. There is also substantial variation in both the spatial distribution and the time scale of the sea ice response. The intermodel spread in sea ice response is influenced by the model mean-state sea ice area and volume, the prevalence of open-ocean deep convection, and the mean-state stratification of the ocean. These findings highlight the importance of model mean-state biases in determining the response to a missing Antarctic meltwater boundary condition.</p>
</abstract>
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