<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="other" specific-use="SMUR" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-6531</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>HESS Opinion: Beyond the Machine Learning Paradox in Hydrology: A Framework for Scientifically Useful Modeling</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Samadi</surname>
<given-names>Vidya</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1494-6481</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Fowler</surname>
<given-names>Hayley</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8848-3606</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ames</surname>
<given-names>Daniel</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Borgomeo</surname>
<given-names>Edoardo</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Goodall</surname>
<given-names>Jonathan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1112-4522</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Horsburgh</surname>
<given-names>Jeffery</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0768-3196</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jakeman</surname>
<given-names>Anthony</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5282-2215</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12">
<sup>12</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lakshmi</surname>
<given-names>Venkataraman</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13">
<sup>13</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Merwade</surname>
<given-names>Venkatesh</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff14">
<sup>14</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mishra</surname>
<given-names>Vimal</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3046-6296</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff15">
<sup>15</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff16">
<sup>16</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pokhrel</surname>
<given-names>Yadu</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1367-216X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff17">
<sup>17</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Saberian</surname>
<given-names>Mostafa</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff18">
<sup>18</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wahl</surname>
<given-names>Thomas</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3643-5463</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff19">
<sup>19</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff20">
<sup>20</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wasko</surname>
<given-names>Conrad</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9166-8289</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff21">
<sup>21</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wilson</surname>
<given-names>Catherine A. M. E.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff22">
<sup>22</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zafarmomen</surname>
<given-names>Nima</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2124-383X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Agricultural Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>School of Computing, Clemson University, SC, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Artificial Intelligence Research Institute for Science and Engineering (AIRISE), School of Computing, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne,  United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil and Construction Engineering, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Centre for Sustainable Development, Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge,  Cambridge, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA,  USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>School of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Utah Water Research Laboratory, Utah  State University, Logan, UT, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11">
<label>11</label>
<addr-line>Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff12">
<label>12</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Water Futures, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff13">
<label>13</label>
<addr-line>Department of Environmental Health and Engineering Whiting School of Engineering Johns  Hopkins University, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff14">
<label>14</label>
<addr-line>Lyles School of Civil and Construction Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN,  USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff15">
<label>15</label>
<addr-line>Earth Sciences Department, Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Gandhinagar, India</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff16">
<label>16</label>
<addr-line>Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Gandhinagar, India</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff17">
<label>17</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing,  MI, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff18">
<label>18</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff19">
<label>19</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida,  Orlando, FL, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff20">
<label>20</label>
<addr-line>Center for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff21">
<label>21</label>
<addr-line>School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff22">
<label>22</label>
<addr-line>School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>09</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>16</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Vidya Samadi et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6531/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6531/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6531/egusphere-2026-6531.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6531/egusphere-2026-6531.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Machine learning (ML) is rapidly transforming hydrologic modeling, delivering remarkable predictive capabilities across applications. Yet a fundamental question remains: does greater predictive performance necessarily advance hydrologic process understanding? While ML models can outperform process-based approaches, they often provide limited mechanistic insight, violate physical constraints, and struggle beyond their training data. We refer to this tension as the &amp;ldquo;Machine Learning Paradox in Hydrology&amp;rdquo;: the flexibility that enables ML to capture nonlinear catchment responses can also decouple predictive performance from mechanistic interpretability. This tension raises a broader challenge for hydrologic modeling: how can predictive models be used not only to forecast system behavior, but also to test, refine, and advance understanding of the processes that govern it? In this Perspective, we propose a framework for advancing data-driven hydrologic modeling based on five dimensions: predictive skill, physical plausibility, extrapolative robustness, process-diagnostic value, and theory-building capability. Using examples of ML underperformance across the conterminous United States (CONUS), we illustrate how model failures can reveal unresolved processes, missing information, and limitations in existing physical representations and theory. We then propose four complementary strategies to address the ML paradox: physics-informed ML, explainability, transfer learning, and residual structural learning. Such capabilities would transform hybrid models from predictive tools into process-informed reasoning systems that actively support hypothesis testing, model falsification, mechanistic interpretability, and theory development.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="16"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Science Foundation</funding-source>
<award-id>CBET 2429082</award-id>
<award-id>CMMI 2125283</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>NOAA Research</funding-source>
<award-id>NA22NWS4320003</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>National Science Foundation</funding-source>
<award-id>2118329</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs4">
<funding-source>National Science Foundation</funding-source>
<award-id>2209139</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs5">
<funding-source>U.S. Department of War</funding-source>
<award-id>RC23-3707</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
</back>
</article>