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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-6524</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Climate models lack decadal variability in precipitation because of a weak atmospheric response to sea surface temperature anomalies</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Noyelle</surname>
<given-names>Robin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0001-0127-6602</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wills</surname>
<given-names>Robert Jnglin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7776-2076</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Fischer</surname>
<given-names>Erich</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1931-6737</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wernli</surname>
<given-names>Heini</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9674-4837</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Knutti</surname>
<given-names>Reto</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8303-6700</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>04</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>29</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Robin Noyelle et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6524/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6524/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6524/egusphere-2026-6524.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6524/egusphere-2026-6524.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>A reliable representation of the mechanisms leading to decadal variability in climate models is crucial for projections of multi-year droughts and other long-lasting extremes. Here we show that CMIP6 climate models have&amp;nbsp; too low autocorrelation at one-year time lag and beyond, and as a result too weak decadal variability in both precipitation and sea level pressure (SLP). We employ a statistical learning technique to systematically quantify the extent to which SSTs condition the anomalies in these surface variables across the globe. In the extratropics, SSTs explain only a small portion of the variability of precipitation and SLP in models, even at multi-year time scales. ERA5 and 20CRv3 reanalyses suggest distinctly higher autocorrelation and decadal variability because of a stronger conditioning by SSTs in the real world. We attribute the weak decadal variability of precipitation and SLP in models to a weak dynamical atmospheric response to decadal variability of SSTs. Our results suggest that the models considered underestimate the dynamical ocean-atmosphere coupling that is important for decadal variability in extratropical precipitation and SLP, especially outside the regions impacted by the sub-decadal tropical Pacific ocean variability.&amp;nbsp;</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="29"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung</funding-source>
<award-id>216710</award-id>
<award-id>20337</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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