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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-638</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Reliability Analysis Method for Soil Slopes Permanent Displacement under Mainshock-Aftershock Sequences</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>Tianyi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhang</surname>
<given-names>Chengda</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhang</surname>
<given-names>Jiangwei</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3459-5343</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>Su</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dai</surname>
<given-names>Zhijun</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Key Laboratory of Intelligent Detection and Equipment for Underground Space of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, Ministry of Natural   Resources, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang, 050031, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>College of Earth Sciences, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang, 050031, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>519 Team of North China Geological Exploration Bureau, Tianjin North China Geological Exploration Bureau, Baoding 071051, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Key Laboratory of Urban Security and Disaster Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>17</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>12</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Tianyi Wang et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-638/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-638/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-638/egusphere-2026-638.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-638/egusphere-2026-638.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>After a primary seismic event, subsequent aftershocks frequently induce progressive damage to slopes. Evaluating the response of slopes to mainshock-aftershock sequence (MAS) from a probabilistic perspective is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation. Current research primarily focuses on single mainshock events, with limited consideration of the aftershock effects. Our study addresses the MAS events. Firstly, the random input field of the MAS is constructed through the collaboration of theoretical models and real data. Then, considering the peak characteristics, cumulative characteristics and spectral characteristics of the MAS, the numerical simulation method is used to explore the control parameters for the soil slope response. Ultimately, leveraging the probability density evolution method (PDEM), we introduce a reliability assessment framework for soil slope behavior under MAS loading. Compared with the existing approaches, the new method fully accounts for aftershock characteristics and assesses the degree of slope permanent displacement response with greater precision. These results offer substantial practical utility for engineering applications and serve as guidance for slope stability assessment and disaster mitigation strategies.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="12"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Natural Science Foundation of China</funding-source>
<award-id>51908176</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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