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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-6372</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Coverage of mobile methane leak surveys of gas distribution networks: The impact of wind-aware scheduling on the coverage distribution</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ball</surname>
<given-names>David</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0009-2348-6879</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Eichenlaub</surname>
<given-names>Nathan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ohman</surname>
<given-names>Karin</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chan</surname>
<given-names>Eric</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7766-2278</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Project Canary, Denver, Colorado, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>09</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>27</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 David Ball et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6372/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6372/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6372/egusphere-2026-6372.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6372/egusphere-2026-6372.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Mobile leak surveys of gas distribution networks typically drive each street six times, two passes a night, and often run those nights in close succession. Each pass&amp;rsquo;s coverage (the pipe it is able to survey) depends on the wind direction, which is highly autocorrelated in time. This raises a concern about the standard practice: when passes are packed into a few nearby nights, does the wind direction vary enough for the survey to &amp;ldquo;see&amp;rdquo; the entire intended pipe, or do the repeated passes simply re-survey already-covered pipe and miss the rest?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To investigate this, we use 3,992 real survey drives, each paired with a plume model that computes the fraction of the pipeline a drive could survey under a given night&amp;rsquo;s wind. For each drive we run a Monte-Carlo simulation, repeatedly drawing historical wind from other candidate nights and computing the resulting distribution of coverage under two deployment strategies: &amp;ldquo;windblind&amp;rdquo; surveys that drive on random nights within a week, and &amp;ldquo;wind-aware&amp;rdquo; surveys that choose nights for complementary wind directions. We find that six blind passes over three closely spaced nights cover a median of 81 % of pipe. The distribution has a low tail: a hard network, or any network caught in an unlucky week, is left with roughly a third of its pipe uncovered, and that tail deepens for the smaller leaks, while line-of-sight blockage (a heuristic but physically motivated treatment of obstructions&amp;rsquo; impact on plume detectability) lowers coverage further still. Because the wind varies little over a single night, coverage is set by how many distinct nights a survey samples rather than by its pass count. Choosing those nights by the wind, using only conditions available within a one-to-two week window, removes the low tail and covers more with fewer passes: four passes over two chosen nights beat six driven blind, and three chosen nights reach about 93 %.</p>
</abstract>
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