<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" specific-use="SMUR" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-6189</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>EU forest carbon sink decline as seen by Earth observation and national inventories</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Linscheid</surname>
<given-names>Nora</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8937-6247</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mayer</surname>
<given-names>Laura</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Aquino</surname>
<given-names>Chiara</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1754-9302</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Balzarolo</surname>
<given-names>Manuela</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7888-1501</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chiriacò</surname>
<given-names>Maria Vincenza</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9662-914X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Juillard</surname>
<given-names>Mélanie</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Brandt</surname>
<given-names>Martin</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chuvieco</surname>
<given-names>Emilio</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5618-4759</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ciais</surname>
<given-names>Philippe</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8560-4943</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Feng</surname>
<given-names>Maoyuan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8705-9800</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Fensholt</surname>
<given-names>Rasmus</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3067-4527</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kattenborn</surname>
<given-names>Teja</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7381-3828</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Khairoun</surname>
<given-names>Amin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5757-5126</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kowalski</surname>
<given-names>Katja</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Liu</surname>
<given-names>Siyu</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Maack</surname>
<given-names>Joachim</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mosig</surname>
<given-names>Clemens</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8662-7698</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Regnier</surname>
<given-names>Pierre</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Senf</surname>
<given-names>Cornelius</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2389-2158</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Viana-Soto</surname>
<given-names>Alba</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5595-2170</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Xu</surname>
<given-names>Yidi</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1528-4256</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Yan</surname>
<given-names>Yanzi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bastos</surname>
<given-names>Ana</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7368-7806</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Earth System Science and Remote Sensing, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>CMCC Foundation, Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, Viterbo, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Citepa, Paris, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geology, Geography and the Environment, University of Alcala</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l&apos;Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Department Geoscience, Environment and Society, Biogeochemistry and Modelling of the Earth System-BGEOSYS,  Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>Chair of Sensor-based Geoinformatics, University of Freiburg</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>Technical University of Munich, School of Life Sciences, Earth Observation for Ecosystem Management</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>22</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>42</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Nora Linscheid et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6189/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6189/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6189/egusphere-2026-6189.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6189/egusphere-2026-6189.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The declining European forest carbon uptake in recent years is challenging the capacity of European forests to remain carbon sinks, while the European Union&amp;rsquo;s climate policy relies on this large natural carbon sink to meet its climate targets. The decreased forest carbon sink is thought to be caused by a combination of increased harvest, severe droughts, bark beetle infestations, tree mortality, and slow-down in tree growth causing reduced CO2 uptake. Yet several knowledge gaps remain, importantly a lack of a reconciliation and country-scale quantitative comparison of carbon losses from recent forest disturbances. In the past years, several estimates of forest C fluxes and losses over Europe based on remote sensing have been developed, complementing national greenhouse gas inventory (NGHGI) information. However, an in-depth intercomparison between these various approaches is needed to derive common best estimates of recent C losses, as well as define mutual benefits and individual weaknesses of the different data streams.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Here we investigate the recent changes in the European forest carbon sink by combining new high-resolution Earth Observation (EO)-based estimates of forest aboveground biomass carbon (AGC), forest disturbance and recovery, EO-based bookkeeping models, atmospheric CO2 inversions, and NGHGI approaches. We find that all datasets agree on a reduction of forest C uptake in 2020&amp;ndash;2023 by 17&amp;ndash;27 % compared to the average of 1990&amp;ndash;2019 (-135 to -233 TgC/yr), with a remaining forest C sink in 2020&amp;ndash;2023 in the range of -100 to -193 TgC/yr. Central and boreal European forest C sink losses contribute most substantially to the observed reduction of the net forest C sink over Europe. This increase in C losses is more strongly driven by effects of natural disturbance than increased harvest, where natural disturbance C losses increased 2.6-fold in central and 1.4-fold in boreal Europe in 2020&amp;ndash;23 compared to 2010&amp;ndash;2019. EO data at high resolution detect disturbances at lower or higher magnitude to forest C losses reported in NGHGI. Depending on resolution of the satellite product and disturbance detection approach, C losses from small-scale disturbances and management may be better detected, as higher spatial resolution allows capturing small scale heterogeneity.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Despite overall agreement of different data streams, we find discrepancies of 2&amp;ndash;3 fold difference in AGC and carbon losses estimated for each country between NGHGIs and EO-based datasets. We highlight regional differences across the continent and discuss advantages and challenges of the complementary data streams, with a focus on how high resolution EO and NGHGIs can benefit each other.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="42"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>European Space Agency</funding-source>
<award-id>RECCAP2-CS Global Land Carbon Budget and its Attribution to regional drivers</award-id>
<award-id>FORTRACK</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
</back>
</article>