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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-615</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Investigating Information Transfer in CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; Flux Inversions: An Analysis of Ensemble Kalman Filter Based on Monte Carlo Simulations</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Fan</surname>
<given-names>Shidong</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Ying</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2542-7460</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Ocean Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Center for the Oceanic and Atmospheric Science at SUSTech (COAST), Southern University of Science and Technology,  Shenzhen 518055, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>11</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>30</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Shidong Fan</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-615/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-615/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-615/egusphere-2026-615.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-615/egusphere-2026-615.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Top-down atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; inversions are essential for estimating surface carbon fluxes, yet significant inter-system discrepancies highlight an incomplete understanding of how observational information is transferred to flux estimates. This study introduces a diagnostic strategy to explicitly investigate this information transfer, primarily in an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) system, with a comparative analysis of 4D-Var. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we analyze the spatial and temporal correlation patterns between CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations and fluxes, which play a crucial role in the inversion process by tracing information flow via the influence matrix. Our results reveal that these correlation scales are dictated by the autocorrelation structures of the fluxes themselves. We identify a resonance-like effect wherein correlated fluxes amplify concentration-flux correlations, while uncorrelated fluxes suppress them. The absence of this suppression for prescribed fluxes (e.g., anthropogenic emissions) can cause systematic signal misattribution. We further demonstrate that 4D-Var relies also heavily on flux autocorrelations due to its cost function&amp;rsquo;s localized gradient. In both methods, the prior&amp;rsquo;s critical role is mediated through the transitivity of strong autocorrelations. This process-oriented perspective offers mechanistic insights for reconciling inversion results, optimizing observing networks, and strengthening carbon budget assessments.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="30"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Natural Science Foundation of China</funding-source>
<award-id>42471393</award-id>
<award-id>41961160728</award-id>
<award-id>41575106</award-id>
<award-id>42105124</award-id>
<award-id>41905114</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Program</funding-source>
<award-id>KCXFZ20230731094301004</award-id>
<award-id>KCXFZ2021102017480300</award-id>
<award-id>KQTD20180411143441009</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>Special Project for Research and Development in Key areas of Guangdong Province</funding-source>
<award-id>2020B1111360001</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs4">
<funding-source>Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation of Guangdong Province</funding-source>
<award-id>2020B1515130003</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs5">
<funding-source>Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province</funding-source>
<award-id>2017A050506003</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs6">
<funding-source>Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee</funding-source>
<award-id>N_HKUST638/19</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs7">
<funding-source>Chengdu University of Information Technology</funding-source>
<award-id>KYT202121</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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