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<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-6053</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>From evidence to protection: A critical review and original analysis of the implementation gap in managing oil and gas impacts on biodiversity</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Shahid</surname>
<given-names>Arshad Shehzad Ahmad</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2857-106X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Maqbool</surname>
<given-names>Jawaria</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Naz</surname>
<given-names>Shazia</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Lahore University of Management Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>NFC Institute of Engineering and Technology, Multan, Pakistan</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>30</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>27</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Arshad Shehzad Ahmad Shahid et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6053/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6053/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6053/egusphere-2026-6053.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6053/egusphere-2026-6053.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>&amp;nbsp;&lt;span&gt;Oil and gas development alters habitat in some of the world&amp;rsquo;s most biodiverse regions, and the ecological mechanisms&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;behind these impacts are now well described. Recent syntheses argue that the binding constraint on better outcomes is no longer e&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;cological knowledge but the translation of that knowledge into enforceable and durable protection. This claim has rarely been &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;tested with data. We combine a critical review of the literature through mid-2026 with four original analyses of openly published &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;datasets. First, using 1,169 listing and recovery documents for 608 Canadian species at risk (CAN-SAR database), we find that &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;oil and gas drilling is identified as a threat for 18.9% of species (95% CI 15.7&amp;ndash;22.5%), rising to 41.5% for mammals and &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;33.3% for birds. Recognition depends strongly on assessment protocol: reports that used the standardized IUCN-CMP threats &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;calculator were 4.6 times more likely to record the threat (95% CI 2.3&amp;ndash;9.1), which fully explains its apparent rise over time. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;The severity of this threat was scored as unknown less often (13.0%) than for other threats (17.8%). Second, only 5 of 313 &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;recovery strategies (1.6%) met the statutory deadline, and strategies for oil-and-gas-exposed species were more than twice as &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;likely to leave critical habitat unidentified (35.5% versus 18.2%; odds ratio 2.48, 95% CI 1.34&amp;ndash;4.56), a difference explained &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;largely by the wide-ranging vertebrates that dominate this group. Third, propagating the national boreal caribou demography &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;model shows that the expected growth rate falls below replacement at about 8.5% anthropogenic disturbance when fire is &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;negligible, and that the probability of a stable or growing population at the policy benchmark of 35% disturbance is about 0.14. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;Fourth, the U.S. protections governing three indicator species changed direction at least once between 2023 and 2026, with &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;federal listings lasting 2.1&amp;ndash;2.4 years. Together these results show that knowledge of oil and gas threats is adequate for action, &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;and that losses accumulate in the steps that follow: planning, threshold setting, and the durability of protection. We close with &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;recommendations aimed at each of these steps.&lt;/span&gt;&amp;nbsp;</p>
</abstract>
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