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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-6047</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>High Sensitivity of Amazon Net Ecosystem Exchange Projections to Photosynthetic Optimal Temperature</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vara-Vela</surname>
<given-names>Angel Liduvino</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Machado</surname>
<given-names>Luiz A. T.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rizzo</surname>
<given-names>Luciana V.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Benavente</surname>
<given-names>Noelia Rojas</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8431-6528</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Artaxo</surname>
<given-names>Paulo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7754-3036</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>van Asperen</surname>
<given-names>Hella</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9639-4547</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cárdenas-Vélez</surname>
<given-names>Mario</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0116-8334</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>de Araújo</surname>
<given-names>Alessandro Carioca</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7361-5087</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cecchini</surname>
<given-names>Micael A.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0219-2857</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cely-Toro</surname>
<given-names>Ivan Mauricio</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dias-Júnior</surname>
<given-names>Cléo Q.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4783-4689</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gałkowski</surname>
<given-names>Michał</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1681-3965</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ho</surname>
<given-names>David</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1592-448X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pöschl</surname>
<given-names>Ulrich</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1412-3557</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Shimbo</surname>
<given-names>Julia</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Xu</surname>
<given-names>Xiyan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2732-1325</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Botía</surname>
<given-names>Santiago</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5447-3968</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Physics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Biogeochemical Processes, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Biogeochemical Signals, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA), Embrapa Amazônia Oriental, Belém, Brazil</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, University of São Paulo, São Paulo,Brazil</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Division, Air Resources Laboratory, NOAA, Oak Ridge, United States</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>National Institute for Amazonian Research, Manaus, Brazil</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>Multiphase Chemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM), Asa Norte CLN 211, Brasília, 70863-520, DF, Brazil</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11">
<label>11</label>
<addr-line>Faculty of Physics and Applied Computer Science, AGH University of Kraków, Kraków, Poland</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>29</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>34</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Angel Liduvino Vara-Vela et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6047/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6047/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6047/egusphere-2026-6047.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-6047/egusphere-2026-6047.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The Amazon rainforest has historically functioned as a major carbon sink, but recent studies suggest this capacity is weakening under the combined pressures of deforestation and climate change. In the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM), the optimal temperature for photosynthesis (T&lt;sub&gt;opt&lt;/sub&gt;) controls the temperature dependence of carbon uptake. To investigate how T&lt;sub&gt;opt&lt;/sub&gt; influences long-term net ecosystem exchange (NEE) over the Amazon under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, we conducted multi-decadal sensitivity simulations (2030&lt;span&gt;&amp;ndash;&lt;/span&gt;2100) using fixed literature-derived and temperature-dependent T&lt;sub&gt;opt&lt;/sub&gt; formulations within VPRM. VPRM runs were conducted offline, driven by meteorological fields derived from Weather Research and Forecasting Greenhouse Gas (WRF-GHG) model simulations, and evaluated for April and September to contrast Amazon seasonal extremes. Under SSP5-8.5 warming, minimal land-use change leaves climate-driven thermal stress as the primary control on long-term NEE. During the dry-season peak (September), when thermal stress is most severe, the lower fixed-T&lt;sub&gt;opt&lt;/sub&gt; formulation causes the historical carbon sink to progressively weaken and transition to a net source by 2090&amp;ndash;2100. In contrast, the temperature-dependent T&lt;sub&gt;opt&lt;/sub&gt; formulation mitigates high-temperature photosynthetic inhibition, preserving daytime uptake and delaying this sink-to-source transition. By 2100, T&lt;sub&gt;opt&lt;/sub&gt; formulation uncertainty introduces a regional NEE spread of 0.054 PgC month&lt;sup&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;minus;&lt;/span&gt;1&lt;/sup&gt; in April and 0.157 PgC month&lt;sup&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;minus;&lt;/span&gt;1&lt;/sup&gt; in September&amp;mdash;sufficient during the dry season to reverse the sign of the regional carbon budget. These findings demonstrate that model representations of photosynthetic thermal acclimation can strongly influence the projected Amazonian carbon sink resilience under future warming.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="34"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo</funding-source>
<award-id>2024/19065-0</award-id>
<award-id>2022/07974-0</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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