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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5998</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Uncertainty-aware XCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; mapping over China through adaptive fusion of multi-source satellite observations</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Hongxia</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>He</surname>
<given-names>Qin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6087-5293</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>Shuo</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Qin</surname>
<given-names>Kai</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1280-6330</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cohen</surname>
<given-names>Jason Blake</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9889-8175</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Feng</surname>
<given-names>Ye</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gao</surname>
<given-names>Honghui</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8470-7723</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>ZhengQiang</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bai</surname>
<given-names>Yang</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhang</surname>
<given-names>Lu</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>School of Environment and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Coal-Based Greenhouse Gas Control and Utilization, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Carbon Neutrality Institute, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>State Environment Protection Key Laboratory of Satellite Remote Sensing, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, 475004, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>National Satellite Meteorological Center (National Centre for Space Weather), China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100101, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>10</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>23</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Hongxia Li et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5998/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5998/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5998/egusphere-2026-5998.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5998/egusphere-2026-5998.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Multi-source satellite observations of the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of carbon dioxide (XCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;) are limited by sparse orbital sampling, cross-platform footprint mismatch, and heterogeneous retrieval uncertainties, leading to substantial spatial discontinuities and uncertainty propagation errors in regional XCO&lt;sub&gt;2 &lt;/sub&gt;mapping. To address these limitations, we developed an adaptive fusion framework integrating physics-based Gaussian oversampling and Bayesian maximum entropy (PGO-BME) for uncertainty-aware monthly XCO&lt;sub&gt;2 &lt;/sub&gt;reconstruction over China. Monthly observations from DQ-1, OCO-2, OCO-3, and GOSAT collected between June 2022 and December 2024 were fused within the framework. In hold-out validation, the framework achieved an overall R&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; of 0.90 and an RMSE of 0.63 ppm, substantially outperforming conventional pixel-center and area-weighting approaches. Independent validation against the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) further showed R&lt;sup&gt;2 &lt;/sup&gt;values of 0.93 at both the Hefei and Xianghe stations. The reconstructed dataset preserved both large-scale atmospheric transport patterns and localized anthropogenic enhancements, while posterior uncertainties were consistent with the corresponding spatial prediction errors. These results demonstrate that physically constrained, uncertainty-aware fusion can improve the spatial continuity and reliability of satellite XCO&lt;sub&gt;2 &lt;/sub&gt;fields while retaining atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2 &lt;/sub&gt;variability across spatial scales.</p>
</abstract>
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