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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5964</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Multidimensional drought-propagation modes across U.S. catchments under methodological uncertainty</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Terzi</surname>
<given-names>Tolga Barış</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bölükbaşı</surname>
<given-names>İsmail Buğra</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Düzen</surname>
<given-names>Mehmet Asaf</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5200-368X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of engineering, Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon, 61080, Türkiye</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of engineering, Yalova University, Yalova, 77200, Türkiye</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>19</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>48</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Tolga Barış Terzi et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5964/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5964/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5964/egusphere-2026-5964.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5964/egusphere-2026-5964.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Meteorological drought is transformed as it propagates through catchments, but estimated propagation behaviour depends on how drought events are defined and linked. We analysed meteorological-to-hydrological drought propagation across CAMELS-US using four non-redundant response dimensions: propagation probability, onset lag, severity transmission, and recovery extension. Susceptibility was evaluated across 162 combinations of 27 event definitions, three criterion-weighting methods, and two multicriteria ranking methods. Of 488 event-reliable catchments, 438 had sufficient coverage for the methodological ensemble. Catchment classifications derived from a single baseline event definition differed substantially from those obtained after integrating across event definitions (adjusted Rand index = 0.256). The integrated analysis identified two broad response modes: a rapid transmission&amp;ndash;attenuation mode and a delayed persistence mode. These modes were comparatively stable under bootstrap resampling (median adjusted Rand index = 0.937), although they overlapped within a continuous multidimensional response space. Continuous susceptibility was largely insensitive to including duration transmission as a fifth criterion (Spearman &amp;rho; = 0.990), while approximately half of rank uncertainty arose from interactions among methodological choices. Susceptibility remained moderately predictable under spatially blocked validation, with random-forest R&amp;sup2; decreasing from 0.424 under random cross-validation to 0.245 under leave-one-HUC2-out validation. Climate provided most of the transferable predictive information. The transmission&amp;ndash;persistence association was weak and became uncertain after adjustment for hydroclimate. Overall, integrating plausible methodological choices produced more reproducible drought-propagation structure than reliance on a single event definition.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="48"/></counts>
</article-meta>
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