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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5845</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>A practical quantile approach to nonlinear uncertainty propagation in radiometric dating</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pommé</surname>
<given-names>Stefaan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5017-7451</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Macsik</surname>
<given-names>Zsuzsanna</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dumitru</surname>
<given-names>Oana-Alexandra</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9901-5621</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Geel, Belgium</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Nuclear and Radiochemistry Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geological Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>23</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>44</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Stefaan Pommé et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5845/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5845/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5845/egusphere-2026-5845.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5845/egusphere-2026-5845.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Radiometric ages are commonly reported with a symmetric uncertainty (&amp;plusmn;&lt;em&gt;u&lt;/em&gt;) obtained by first-order propagation. This is adequate when the age uncertainty is small relative to the characteristic timescale of the chronometer, but becomes unreliable when a measured isotope or activity ratio is transformed through a strongly nonlinear age equation. Equal positive and negative ratio deviations then produce unequal age deviations and asymmetric coverage intervals. Where the measured ratio approaches a physical bound, a finite upper age limit may cease to exist. Monte Carlo propagation can account for these effects, but is unnecessary for monotonic dating equations when the uncertainty budget can be adequately represented by a single equivalent perturbation of the measured ratio with standard deviation &amp;sigma;&lt;sub&gt;eq&lt;/sub&gt;. The degree of nonlinearity is then described by a single dimensionless parameter, &amp;beta; = &lt;em&gt;u&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sub&gt;lin&lt;/sub&gt;/&amp;tau;, which compares the linearly propagated age uncertainty with the chronometer timescale (&amp;tau; = 109&amp;ndash;158 ka for &lt;sup&gt;230&lt;/sup&gt;Th/&lt;sup&gt;238&lt;/sup&gt;U, 8.2 ka for &lt;sup&gt;14&lt;/sup&gt;C). Symmetric propagation is generally adequate for |&amp;beta;|&amp;lt;0.1. At larger |&amp;beta;|, asymmetric coverage limits follow from solving the dating equation at the measured ratio &amp;plusmn;&lt;em&gt;k&lt;/em&gt;&amp;sigma;&lt;sub&gt;eq&lt;/sub&gt;. Above |&amp;beta;|&amp;asymp;1/&lt;em&gt;k&lt;/em&gt;, the ratio quantile near the phsycial bound reaches the limit of the age equation, so no finite upper coverage limit exists and the result must be reported as a lower age limit. The approach is developed for &lt;sup&gt;230&lt;/sup&gt;Th/&lt;sup&gt;238&lt;/sup&gt;U dating and validated against Monte Carlo simulation. It is then extended to three families of monotonic chronometers: decaying parents, daughter/parent activity ratios approaching secular equilibrium, and accumulating daughter/parent atom ratios. Only the first two families have a dating limit, whereas classical geochronometers such as K&amp;ndash;Ar, Rb&amp;ndash;Sr, and U&amp;ndash;Pb generally do not. Requiring only standard uncertainty budget parameters, the method can be implemented directly in a spreadsheet or data-reduction software.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Joint Research Centre</funding-source>
<award-id>NA</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
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