<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" specific-use="SMUR" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5826</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Beyond instantaneous runoff generation: large-sample evaluation of temporal forcing kernels in mGRHyMoLAP</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Houénafa</surname>
<given-names>Sianou Ezéckiel</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Nowak</surname>
<given-names>Wolfgang</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2583-8865</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>African Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cape Town, South Africa</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Applied Mathematics, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Modelling Hydraulic and Environmental Systems (IWS/LS3), University of Stuttgart, Pfaffenwaldring 5a, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Stuttgart Center for Simulation Science (SimTech), University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>26</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>41</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Sianou Ezéckiel Houénafa</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5826/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5826/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5826/egusphere-2026-5826.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5826/egusphere-2026-5826.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Conceptual rainfall&amp;ndash;runoff models retain antecedent information through dynamic states, but differ in whether individual runoff-generation contributions are distributed over subsequent time steps. GRHyMoLAP represents antecedent influence through its production store and recession dynamics, yet applies its additive runoff-generation forcing instantaneously. We introduce mGRHyMoLAP, which replaces this instantaneous application with a normalized temporal convolution while retaining the original storage and recession structure. We represent different temporal convolution shapes by comparing a flexible discrete kernel with parsimonious exponential and log-normal kernels and testing them out of sample across 623 CAMELS-GB catchments against the original GRHyMoLAP and GR4J. The log-normal formulation improves NSE in 93.1% and KGE in 90.7% of catchments relative to GRHyMoLAP and outperforms GR4J in 68.1% and 72.6%, respectively. Beyond aggregate performance, mGRHyMoLAP maintains similar agreement during non-increasing-flow periods while more consistently reproducing the observed direction of daily flow increases. Extending the kernel from current-day forcing only to include one antecedent day captures most of the performance gain, with little further median improvement for longer memory windows. A non-zero kernel peak occurs in 42.9% of catchments, indicating a substantial contribution of antecedent runoff-generation forcing; 96.6% of these catchments peak at a lag of one day. All catchments with a non-zero lag peak improve relative to GRHyMoLAP, with a median NSE increase of 0.067, compared with improvements in 87.9% and a median increase of 0.010 among catchments with a lag-0 peak. Simulated performance is robust across calibration choices, whereas detailed kernel moments and tails are less identifiable, supporting peak lag as the primary diagnostic while cautioning against interpreting the calibrated kernel as a direct estimate of physical travel-time distributions. Non-zero peak lags are associated with larger catchments, longer high-flow durations, lower mean precipitation, higher aridity, and greater cropland fractions. These results demonstrate that temporal redistribution of runoff-generation forcing can improve GRHyMoLAP predictions and provide a useful model-based diagnostic of where such additional temporal flexibility is beneficial.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="41"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
</back>
</article>