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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5719</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Global fully coupled climate-aerosol CMA-CPSv4 &amp;ndash; Part 2: Aerosol predictability</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zheng</surname>
<given-names>Mengzhe</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0009-9632-7529</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wu</surname>
<given-names>Tongwen</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5187-9121</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhao</surname>
<given-names>He</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4962-8598</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jie</surname>
<given-names>Weihua</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>Yong</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4246-6525</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhang</surname>
<given-names>Yong</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Su</surname>
<given-names>Xiaole</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Abulaiti</surname>
<given-names>Ayixianmuguli</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Meteorological Observation Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Henan Provincial Climate Centre, Zhengzhou 450003, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique, China Meteorological Administration, Zhengzhou 450003, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>Kashgar Meteorological Bureau, Kashgar 844100, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>13</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>31</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Mengzhe Zheng et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5719/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5719/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5719/egusphere-2026-5719.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5719/egusphere-2026-5719.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Aerosol prediction and aerosol&amp;ndash;climate interactions have been incorporated into the China Meteorological Administration Climate Prediction System version 4 (CMA-CPSv4), which was recently developed based on the fully coupled global climate&amp;ndash;aerosol model Beijing Climate Center Earth System Model version 1 (BCC-ESM1). In this study, 20 years of 30-day hindcasts initialized on the first day of each month from 2005 to 2024 are conducted to assess the predictability of five aerosol species&amp;mdash;dust, sea salt, sulfate, organic carbon (OC), and black carbon (BC)&amp;mdash;and aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm on weekly and monthly timescales. A 20-year aerosol replay simulation constrained by observed meteorology is used as the reference. At the global scale, CMA-CPSv4 maintains useful predictive skill for four aerosol species, excluding sea salt, during the first two forecast weeks and the first forecast month. During weeks 3&amp;ndash;4, predictive skill for dust and sea salt persists primarily over the tropics and parts of North America, southern India, and southeastern China. Sulfate remains predictable mainly over North America, Africa, southeastern China, and the tropics, whereas OC and BC retain skill across extensive global land areas and the tropics. Compared with aerosol burdens, AOD is more difficult to predict, with useful predictive skill beyond the first forecast week largely confined to tropical regions. Case studies further demonstrate that CMA-CPSv4 can capture the large-scale transport of regional dust and BC aerosols at lead times of approximately 1&amp;ndash;2 weeks. However, notable limitations remain, including the systematic underestimation of dust column burdens over major dust source regions after the first forecast week and limited predictive skill for AOD and sea salt.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Natural Science Foundation of China</funding-source>
<award-id>42230608</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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