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<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5707</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Comprehensive evaluation on the robustness of deep learning based rainfall-runoff models under climate change scenarios</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tapia</surname>
<given-names>Aldo A.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0007-7041-9594</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bennett</surname>
<given-names>Andrew</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona, 1133 James E. Roger Way, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>27</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>39</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Aldo A. Tapia</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5707/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5707/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5707/egusphere-2026-5707.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5707/egusphere-2026-5707.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Deep learning rainfall-runoff models have shown the ability to reproduce the observed hydrograph exceeding the performance of physics-based models, but their reliability outside the training distribution is still an open question. Most robustness evaluation have focused on a single architecture (LSTM), and have used controlled forcing perturbations (temperature offset or precipitation scaling) to probe the non-stationarity condition. In this study, we evaluate the robustness of five deep learning architectures (LSTM, minLSTM, minGRU, MLP-Mixer, Transformer) against a re-calibrated physics-based benchmark (SAC-SMA + Snow-17) across 554 CAMELS catchments, driven by a six-Global Change Model (GCM), four-Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 and three-future periods ensemble. The results show that the deep learning models outperform the physics-based benchmark in terms of accuracy, but their robustness is limited under non-stationary conditions. The LSTM and minGRU architectures show the best performance among the deep learning models, while the MLP-Mixer and minLSTM architectures show the worst performance. We found that the predictive skill does not imply robustness: the LSTM, the most accurate architecture, is the least robust. Transformer, the most robust on annual volumes, fails to reproduce the intra-annual redistribution of streamflow, diverging from the physics-based benchmark in both directions, compensating that difference at annual basis. Architecture, not GCMs, SSPs nor period, is the dominant factor of divergence (45 % of the evaluated catchments). The results highlight the need for a more comprehensive evaluation of deep learning models under non-stationary conditions, and the importance of considering both accuracy and robustness in model selection.</p>
</abstract>
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