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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5677</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Physics-Informed Sampling-Based Model Predictive Control for Event-Scale Precipitation Regulation</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Qiu</surname>
<given-names>Binquan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0000-3810-4962</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ren</surname>
<given-names>Qiuyi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Higuchi</surname>
<given-names>Yuta</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>He</surname>
<given-names>Houtian</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Yasunaga</surname>
<given-names>Kazuaki</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bai</surname>
<given-names>Yang</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1080-1939</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ogura</surname>
<given-names>Masaki</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3857-3942</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>School of Sustainable Design, University of Toyama, Toyama, Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>06</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>18</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Binquan Qiu et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5677/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5677/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5677/egusphere-2026-5677.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5677/egusphere-2026-5677.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Extreme rainfall events pose serious risks to human life, infrastructure, and economic systems. To mitigate such events, this paper proposes an effective event-scale precipitation control framework that deploys distributed offshore drag-inducing actuators to perturb the local wind and humidity fields and thereby influence precipitation formation. Existing rainfall-intervention methods are generally limited either to long-term, open-loop interventions at the climate scale or to simplified models that are difficult to extend to realistic weather systems. In contrast, the proposed framework directly integrates high-fidelity numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to preserve realistic atmospheric conditions while enabling closed-loop regulation of individual rainfall events through model predictive control (MPC). Sampling-based optimization makes this integration feasible by avoiding the need for gradient information and supporting efficient parallel computation for real-time implementation. Crucially, a physics-informed spatial prior is introduced to support the sampling process by guiding candidate layouts toward physically plausible regions with high control potential, thereby improving search efficiency. This is key to enhancing the robustness and practical viability of sampling-based optimization for such a complex rainfall control problem. Ensemble-based numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves effective and robust event-scale rainfall regulation under realistic weather conditions.</p>
</abstract>
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