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<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="brief-report" specific-use="SMUR" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5548</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Brief communication: GNSS water-vapour fluctuations read the air mass of the 2024 Rio Grande do Sul and 2022 Recife floods hours ahead of the heaviest rain</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kermarrec</surname>
<given-names>Gaël</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5986-5269</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Hannover, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>01</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>10</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Gaël Kermarrec</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5548/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5548/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5548/egusphere-2026-5548.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5548/egusphere-2026-5548.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Satellite-positioning antennas measure the water vapour above them, and the minute-to-minute fluctuations of that measurement, usually smoothed away, describe how the moisture is arranged. We read them at eleven Brazilian antennas during two floods with little or no radar coverage, in Rio Grande do Sul in 2024 and at Recife in 2022, against six-hourly rain gauges. Over a season they separate wet from dry periods 6 to 12 hours ahead, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 to 0.87. In both floods the antennas rose into their top 5% hours before the worst rain.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="10"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft</funding-source>
<award-id>KE 2453/4-1</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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<back>
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</article>