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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5523</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Cheap and accurate higher-order ice flow emulator for mountain glaciers</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rosier</surname>
<given-names>Sebastian H. R.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3047-9908</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gregov</surname>
<given-names>Thomas</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3274-6061</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jouvet</surname>
<given-names>Guillaume</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8546-8459</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vieli</surname>
<given-names>Andreas</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2870-5921</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geography, Universität Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, Université de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>25</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>30</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Sebastian H. R. Rosier et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5523/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5523/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5523/egusphere-2026-5523.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5523/egusphere-2026-5523.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Numerical projections of mountain-glacier evolution increasingly rely on large ensembles that sample uncertain climate forcing, geometry, and ice-flow parameters, yet explicitly resolving higher-order ice dynamics within such ensembles remains computationally expensive. Here we take an alternative approach by training a neural network once, offline, to reproduce the velocity field of a higher-order ice-flow model, and then use the trained network in place of the ice-flow solver during transient simulations. In doing so, we retain the higher-order model&apos;s physical basis while avoiding the repeated cost of its velocity solve. The network predicts depth-dependent horizontal ice-flow velocities for land-terminating mountain glaciers directly from gridded glacier geometry and physical parameters, and its weights are then held fixed, so that no retraining is required when it is applied to a new glacier. Leveraging the computational efficiency of GPU operations together with the instructed glacier model (IGM), we generate a large synthetic training set of transient glacier states across diverse mountain topography and climate histories, and at fixed intervals we compute reference velocities from the Blatter-Pattyn ice-flow formulation. The resulting dataset contains over 300,000 higher-order velocity solutions, orders of magnitude more than the catalogues used to train earlier ice-flow emulators. We train on the misfit between the network outputs and target velocities, together with a physics term based on the same discretised ice-flow energy. Our preferred architecture, trained with this hybrid objective, accurately reproduces velocity on examples unseen during training, with a median surface-speed error of 0.71 m yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; and a median flux-divergence error of 0.10 m yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;. In transient simulations of two real glacier systems that lie outside the training set, the emulator tracks reference simulation ice volume through a 500-year advance-retreat cycle with maximum errors below 6%. Crucially, we find that errors do not accumulate over time. Instead, velocity biases induce geometric changes that tend to counteract them, stabilising the coupled emulator&amp;ndash;mass-conservation system. Taken together, our results show that the expensive part of higher-order ice flow can be paid for once during training and reused indefinitely: velocity is predicted in a single forward pass rather than solved for iteratively at every time step. Higher-order ice dynamics are therefore no longer the limiting cost in mountain-glacier modelling, and become practical in large regional and global projection ensembles.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="30"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung</funding-source>
<award-id>10002401</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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