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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5491</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>The water balance quagmire: a zoom &lt;em&gt;out&lt;/em&gt; to close &lt;em&gt;in&lt;/em&gt; on climate forcing biases</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rosales</surname>
<given-names>Matteo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5084-9921</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sarrazin</surname>
<given-names>Fanny J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9928-9566</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hendrickx</surname>
<given-names>Frédéric</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Andréassian</surname>
<given-names>Vazken</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7124-9303</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, HYCAR, Antony, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Électricité de France, R&amp;D, Chatou, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>17</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>44</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Matteo Rosales et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5491/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5491/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5491/egusphere-2026-5491.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5491/egusphere-2026-5491.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Non closure of the interannual water balance is a major issue in hydrological modelling. Because the potential causes (e.g. forcing biases, groundwater exchanges, anthropogenic influences, streamflow uncertainties) are so inextricably intertwined, many modelers resort to the calibration of &apos;sweep&apos; parameters, leading to &lt;em&gt;ad hoc&lt;/em&gt; corrections of water balance components to improve performance metrics. Such practices can be beneficial when applied &apos;for the right reasons&apos;, although this is seldom possible to verify. In this paper, we look at the untangling of water balance closure through the lens of scale: we hypothesize that the spatial variability of the water balance anomaly signal can be used to separate the different causes of non-closure and, in particular, to discriminate between those which have local determinants (such as groundwater leaks) and those involving non-local or systematic drivers (such as forcing biases). To test the idea, we compute long-term water balance anomalies for 3641 near-natural gauged catchments across Europe, using the CERRA-Land climate reanalyses (1984&amp;ndash;2024). We then apply Thin Plate Splines to extract the &lt;em&gt;mesoscale&lt;/em&gt; imbalance, a continuous field of low-frequency variability. We show that the extracted signal is most likely driven by the forcing biases of the CERRA-Land reanalysis. The approach is a step forward towards extracting the contribution of climate forcing biases across gauged catchments and beyond. The hypothesis and the associated methodology provide a tool to contain the uncertainties of &apos;sweeping&apos;, paving the way for hydrologically-grounded mesoscale corrections of the forcing variables in large-scale distributed hydrological models.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="44"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Association Nationale de la Recherche et de la Technologie</funding-source>
<award-id>2024/1559</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
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