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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5480</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Attributing stratosphere-troposphere mass exchange to tropopause folds: a 45-year trajectory-based climatology and trend analysis in ERA5</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chang</surname>
<given-names>Kai-Wei</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4674-2662</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chung</surname>
<given-names>Chia-Hui</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>23</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>30</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Kai-Wei Chang</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5480/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5480/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5480/egusphere-2026-5480.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5480/egusphere-2026-5480.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Tropopause folds (TF) are one of the main mechanisms of inducing cross-tropopause mass transport, but it is difficult to directly assess the amount of transport due to folds. In this study we perform a multidecadal quantification of stratosphereto-troposphere (STT) and troposphere-to-stratosphere (TST) mass transport associated with TFs, over the 1980&amp;ndash;2024 period using ERA5 reanalysis on model levels. STT and TST events are obtained using trajectory calculations, and the crossing location and time are shown 5 to occur close in time and space with TFs. To quantify the TF-attributed portion of mass exchange, we use the local false discovery rate framework, a method of performing hypothesis testing given a large number of samples, that allows the assignment of a probability to each transport event quantifying likelihood of association to folds. Using this framework we find that globally, 58.3% of STT and 30.1% of TST are fold-associated. Latitudinally resolved analysis shows that the fold-associated transport fraction peaks in the subtropics for both transport types. Trend analysis shows that over the 10 period of 1981&amp;ndash;2024 seasonal mean TF frequency has generally increased over the globe, while total STT/TST has generally declined. However, the fold-attributed STT/TST is largely flat, suggesting that the STT/TST decrease is predominantly due to non-fold processes.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="30"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Science and Technology Council</funding-source>
<award-id>111-2111-M-034-004-MY</award-id>
<award-id>114-2111-M-034-003</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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