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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5433</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Variable causality in Cenozoic climate-carbon cycle interactions</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Setty</surname>
<given-names>Shruti</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dijkstra</surname>
<given-names>Henk A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lourens</surname>
<given-names>Lucas J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>van Nes</surname>
<given-names>Egbert H.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cramwinckel</surname>
<given-names>Marlow J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6063-836X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>van de Leemput</surname>
<given-names>Ingrid A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sluijs</surname>
<given-names>Appy</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2382-0215</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Environmental Science, Wageningen University and Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 3a, 6708 PB Wageningen, the Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Department of Physics, Utrecht  University, Princetonlaan 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Geoscience, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB Utrecht, the Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>present address: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, 2594 AC, The Hague, the Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>01</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>21</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Shruti Setty et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5433/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5433/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5433/egusphere-2026-5433.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5433/egusphere-2026-5433.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Numerous reconstructions of global climate and the carbon cycle have underpinned conceptual models of the governing feedbacks driving their interaction. However, causal relationships between such reconstructions and their quantification are required to understand the driving mechanisms of past global climate change. Here, utilizing continuous high-resolution deep ocean foraminifer stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios for the past 66 million years, we inspect the causal relations in the climate-carbon cycle system using machine learning approaches. We find that these records are strongly causally related in some periods, particularly during warm climate states, but causation is insignificant in other periods. Intriguingly, the causal dynamics appear to be influenced by long-term modulation cycles of eccentricity and obliquity, suggesting an orbital influence on the mechanistic coupling between climate and carbon cycling. Moreover, our results are consistent with strengthening positive feedbacks between the global carbon cycle and the climate leading towards both abrupt warming and cooling events hypothesized to be due to the passing of tipping points.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="21"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions</funding-source>
<award-id>847504</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Netherlands Earth System Science Centre</funding-source>
<award-id>024.002.001</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>European Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>771497</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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<back>
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</article>