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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5341</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Recent ozone trends and changepoints in the Greater Region: The role of meteorology and NOₓ emission reductions</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Trebs</surname>
<given-names>Ivonne</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5966-4942</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pinheiro</surname>
<given-names>Philippe</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Krein</surname>
<given-names>Andreas</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Junk</surname>
<given-names>Jürgen</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Agro-Environmental Systems Group, Environmental Sensing and Modelling (ENVISION), Luxembourg Institute of   Science and Technology, 41, rue du Brill, L-4422 Belvaux, Luxembourg</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Sustainable Urban &amp; Built Environment Group, Environmental Sustainability Assessment and Circularity (SUSTAIN),  Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, 41, rue du Brill, L-4422 Belvaux, Luxembourg</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>University of Trier, Faculty VI Spatial and Environmental Sciences, Behringstraße 21, D-54296 Trier, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>29</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>48</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Ivonne Trebs et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5341/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5341/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5341/egusphere-2026-5341.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5341/egusphere-2026-5341.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>We analysed long-term records of NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and O&lt;sub&gt;3 &lt;/sub&gt;in Luxembourg and the Greater Region with the Bayesian Estimator of Abrupt change, Seasonality, and Trend (BEAST) to identify probabilistic changepoints in time series. Seasonal components of NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and long-term components of O&lt;sub&gt;3 &lt;/sub&gt;revealed a significant changepoint in 2017/2018 that is more prominent than the effect of the short-term emission reductions in 2020/2021 and the subsequent post-Covid rebound in urban areas. NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations decrease by at least 50 % for all station categories from 2009 to 2024. Linear trends for O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; during this period based on quantile regression and Theil-Sen trend estimator were positive, with highest values at urban stations (~0.75 &amp;micro;g m&lt;sup&gt;-3&lt;/sup&gt; yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;), while increases at peri-urban, rural, and forest sites were smaller (~0.4&amp;ndash;0.6 &amp;micro;g m&lt;sup&gt;-3&lt;/sup&gt; yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;). Spring and autumn are the dominant seasons contributing to the O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; increase. The decline of the positive weekend effect, together with the reduced MDA8 O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; sensitivity to maximal air temperatures above ~20 &amp;deg;C after 2018, indicates an ongoing transition from predominantly VOC-limited towards NOₓ-limited chemistry, particularly at peri-urban, rural, and forest stations during summer. However, our results suggest that the impact of reduced O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; titration by NO, particularly at low to moderate temperatures has sustained increasing O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; in the Greater Region. Simultaneously, the reduction in peak O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; due the influence of NO&lt;sub&gt;x&lt;/sub&gt;-limited chemistry was partly offset by the increase in daytime maximum boundary layer height observed after the 2017/2018 changepoint.</p>
</abstract>
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