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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5338</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>A typology of the temperature response in overshoot, peak and decline pathways</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Steinert</surname>
<given-names>Norman Julius</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2154-5857</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zickfeld</surname>
<given-names>Kirsten</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8866-6541</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sanderson</surname>
<given-names>Benjamin Mark</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8635-4624</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Koven</surname>
<given-names>Charles D.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3367-0065</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mengis</surname>
<given-names>Nadine</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0312-7069</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rethmeier</surname>
<given-names>Pia</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Schwinger</surname>
<given-names>Jörg</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7525-6882</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, United States of America</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>GEOMAR, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>NORCE Climate Environment, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>08</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>26</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Norman Julius Steinert et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5338/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5338/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5338/egusphere-2026-5338.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5338/egusphere-2026-5338.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>As the window to limiting global warming to 1.5 &amp;deg;C closes, mitigation pathways consistent with this limit increasingly rely on temporary temperature overshoot. Despite recent advances in understanding how the Earth system responds to climate overshoot, uncertainty remains about the extent to which overshoot-induced changes can be reversed. Here, we synthesize the key features that determine climate reversibility and the asymmetry between responses to positive and negative emissions, challenging assumptions that net-negative emissions can undo overshoot-induced changes. We propose a typology of temperature responses in overshoot, peak and decline pathways that goes beyond established notions of reversible and irreversible climatic changes, incorporating underexplored climate feedbacks that may arise specifically during negative-emission phases. On this basis, we argue that an irreversible response, as evident from current-generation climate model simulations, cannot be ruled out. A more nuanced characterization and quantification of overshoot dynamics is critical for assessing the feasibility and risks of overshoot-based climate mitigation strategies.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="26"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Norges Forskningsråd</funding-source>
<award-id>352142</award-id>
<award-id>334811</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>European Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>101056939</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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