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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5329</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>A temperature-conditioned spatial-temporal storm generator with evolving convective cell life cycles</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tseng</surname>
<given-names>Chien-Yu</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>Li-Pen</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0981-8397</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Onof</surname>
<given-names>Christian</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1566-573X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei, 106319, Taiwan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>23</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>33</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Chien-Yu Tseng et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5329/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5329/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5329/egusphere-2026-5329.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5329/egusphere-2026-5329.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Convective rainfall varies at multiple scales: individual cells evolve within storms, while the population of cell intensities can differ substantially between storms. Existing object-based stochastic storm generators commonly represent cell occurrence and movement but provide limited representation of these two sources of variability. This study develops a spatial-temporal convective storm generator that explicitly represents both. At the cell scale, radar-derived tracks are represented using three lifespan-based classes, ranging from complete growth-peak-decay lifecycles to short-lived and transient cells, with dependence among evolving intensity and geometric properties preserved using copulas. At the storm scale, each event is assigned a storm-specific distribution of cell intensities. Its location and spread are modelled using Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS), with near-surface air temperature representing systematic environmental dependence and event-level random effects representing residual storm-to-storm variability. The framework was calibrated using 169 warm-season convective storms observed over Birmingham, UK, between 2005 and 2017. The resulting generator reproduces the observed cell-property distributions, dependence structures, storm-scale organisation and temporal clustering. Importantly, using a single pooled cell-intensity distribution largely removes the observed between-storm intensity variability, whereas the storm-specific formulation recovers the observed variance partition while retaining within-storm dispersion. This improves the distributions of event-maximum cell intensity and substantially improves their extreme-value behaviour, with observed return levels remaining within the 5-95% simulation intervals across return periods of 2-100 years. The resulting framework links storm-scale environmental variability to populations of dynamically evolving convective cells, providing a computationally efficient basis for large-ensemble spatial-temporal rainfall generation and future climate-conditioned applications.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="33"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Science and Technology Council</funding-source>
<award-id>113-2923-M-002-001-MY4</award-id>
<award-id>115-2625-M-002-014-</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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