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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5186</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Scenario-based wind drifted snow indication maps for site-specific operational avalanche forecasting in Iceland</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ruttner</surname>
<given-names>Pia</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6503-3730</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Matti</surname>
<given-names>Stephanie Alice</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wieser</surname>
<given-names>Andreas</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bühler</surname>
<given-names>Yves</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0815-2717</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, 7260, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Climate Change, Extremes, and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Center CERC, Davos Dorf, 7260, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Geodesy and Photogrammetry, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Icelandic Meteorological Office, Avalanche Research Center, Ísafjörður, 400, Iceland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>These authors contributed equally to this work.</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>14</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>33</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Pia Ruttner et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5186/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5186/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5186/egusphere-2026-5186.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5186/egusphere-2026-5186.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Wind speed and direction strongly influence avalanche conditions in Iceland, where wind-transported snow can rapidly accumulate in avalanche starting zones. However, operational tools for predicting the spatial distribution and magnitude of wind-driven snow accumulation remain limited. This study investigates whether the terrain-based wind shelter index can support the development of scenario-based wind-driven snow accumulation indication maps for site-specific avalanche forecasting. We analysed terrestrial laser scanning measurements from two study sites near &amp;Iacute;safj&amp;ouml;r&amp;eth;ur in the Westfjords of Iceland and selected five wind-driven snow events from the 2025&amp;ndash;2026 winter season for detailed analysis. We first compared snow thickness and its changes derived from terrestrial laser scanning with continuous point measurements from an in-situ SM4 snow-depth sensor. We then calculated the wind shelter index for the observed wind conditions and fitted linear relationships between the index and measured snow-thickness changes. The fitted relationships varied among events, highlighting the influence of precipitation, wind speed, initial snow conditions, and the chronology of meteorological conditions. Based on these findings, we developed preliminary indication maps of relative wind-driven snow accumulation patterns for different wind directions. The maps can help identify potentially critical starting zones and situations in which small changes in wind direction lead to substantial changes in terrain shelter. The results demonstrate the potential of the wind shelter index as a transparent and computationally efficient basis for scenario mapping. However, the current maps should be considered a proof of concept rather than quantitative predictions of snow depth or avalanche occurrence. Further development should incorporate wind speed, precipitation, event duration, and snow availability and proceed in close collaboration with operational forecasters to evaluate the practical value of the maps.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung</funding-source>
<award-id>207519</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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