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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5111</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Multivariate frequency analysis of threshold-defined streamflow droughts: a mixed-tail framework for duration, severity, and minimum-flow magnitude</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Firoozi</surname>
<given-names>Fatemeh</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0009-7153-6746</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>laimighofer</surname>
<given-names>Johannes</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9926-0990</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Laaha</surname>
<given-names>Gregor</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6793-9640</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>BOKU University, Institute of Statistics, Department of Natural Sciences and Sustainable Resources, Vienna, Austria</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>08</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>24</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Fatemeh Firoozi et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5111/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5111/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5111/egusphere-2026-5111.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5111/egusphere-2026-5111.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Threshold-defined streamflow droughts are commonly described by duration, deficit volume, and minimum-flow magnitude, but these characteristics pose a specific mixed-tail problem for multivariate frequency analysis. Duration and deficit volume increase with drought extremity, whereas minimum-flow magnitude decreases. A consistent trivariate return-period framework for these event characteristics therefore cannot be formulated as a simple upper-tail exceedance problem. Here, we develop an event-based multivariate frequency framework that jointly models drought duration (D), deficit volume or severity (S), and minimum-flow magnitude (M) within Yevjevich&apos;s threshold approach. Annual event series are constructed by selecting, in each water year, the drought with the largest deficit volume and extracting D, S, and the minimum discharge M for the same event. Marginal distributions are represented by zero-augmented Weibull models where applicable, and dependence is modelled using a regular vine copula. Analytical AND and OR probabilities are formulated for the resulting mixed upper-/lower-tail setting, representing compound exceedance and at-least-one exceedance risk, respectively. The framework is applied to 46 years of streamflow observations from 235 Austrian catchments, with a focus on the 2003 and 2015 droughts. The analysis provides strengthened trivariate evidence of compound severity in 2003, with 31 % of stations showing &lt;em&gt;T&lt;sub&gt;AND&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/em&gt; &amp;gt;50 years, whereas 2015 exhibits fewer compound extremes but localized northern hotspots. Non-parametric bootstrap intervals show substantially wider uncertainty for rare AND events than for OR events, reflecting limited information in the joint tail. The multivariate assessment re-ranks events relative to univariate analyses and identifies compound drought hotspots that are not apparent from individual characteristics alone. The framework provides a transferable basis for mixed-tail frequency analysis of streamflow droughts and other threshold-defined environmental extremes.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="24"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>HORIZON EUROPE Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions</funding-source>
<award-id>101283742</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>OeAD-GmbH</funding-source>
<award-id>1838-1916</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>Austrian Science Fund</funding-source>
<award-id>10.55776/DOC216</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs4">
<funding-source>Klima- und Energiefonds</funding-source>
<award-id>C265154</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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