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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5073</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>MAROR: a multipoint autoregressive network for forcing-driven, uncertainty-calibrated reconstruction of hourly coastal sea level from 1940 to the present</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Amores</surname>
<given-names>Angel</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4139-1557</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Alcaraz</surname>
<given-names>Roberto</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0004-8928-347X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Marcos</surname>
<given-names>Marta</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9975-5013</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Thompson</surname>
<given-names>Philip</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Martín</surname>
<given-names>Ariadna</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wahl</surname>
<given-names>Thomas</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3643-5463</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados, UIB-CSIC, Esporles, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Departament de Física, UIB, Palma, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Oceanography, University of Hawai‘i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering &amp; National Central for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida, Orlando, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>National Center for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, 32816, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>31</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>31</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Angel Amores et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5073/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5073/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5073/egusphere-2026-5073.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5073/egusphere-2026-5073.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Tide gauge records are the primary source for coastal sea level research, yet they are short, gappy, and affected by instrumental errors, which limits the study of extreme events and their long-term changes. We present MAROR (&lt;strong&gt;M&lt;/strong&gt;ultipoint &lt;strong&gt;A&lt;/strong&gt;utoregressive &lt;strong&gt;R&lt;/strong&gt;econstruction &lt;strong&gt;O&lt;/strong&gt;f sea-level &lt;strong&gt;R&lt;/strong&gt;ecords), a neural network trained on tide gauge records that reconstructs gap-free, hourly coastal sea level from 1940 to the present, driven only by atmospheric forcing and, when available, satellite altimetry. Building on the HIDRA3, a convolutional neural network designed for short-term predictions, MAROR turns a short-range forecast model into a long-range autoregressive reconstruction engine, with an exposure-bias correction that removes drift and a generative ensemble that yields a calibrated, per-tide-gauge uncertainty band. We evaluate it on 373 tide gauges across eleven regions spanning a wide range of surge regimes, from extratropical shelves to tropical cyclones and western boundary currents. MAROR reconstructs the hourly storm surge with a median correlation of 0.88, reproduces the most extreme events, and outperforms both a hydrodynamic hindcast and a state-of-the-art deep-learning model.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación</funding-source>
<award-id>PID2021-124085OB-I00</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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