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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5033</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>A protocol for the biodiversity model intercomparison project: BMIP 1.0</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Velazco</surname>
<given-names>Santiago José Elías</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7527-0967</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Briscoe</surname>
<given-names>Natalie</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Buckley</surname>
<given-names>Lauren</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cabral</surname>
<given-names>Juliano Sarmento</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cervantes Peralta</surname>
<given-names>Francisco</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cooke</surname>
<given-names>Rob</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0601-8888</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>de Oliveira Junior</surname>
<given-names>Admir Cesar</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ferrier</surname>
<given-names>Simon</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gascoigne</surname>
<given-names>Samuel J. L.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12">
<sup>12</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Godoy</surname>
<given-names>Lucas da Cunha</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13">
<sup>13</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Guillera-Arroita</surname>
<given-names>Gurutzeta</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Isaac</surname>
<given-names>Nick J. B.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Karger</surname>
<given-names>Dirk Nikolaus</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff14">
<sup>14</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Keuth</surname>
<given-names>Raya</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6694-8887</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff15">
<sup>15</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lundquist</surname>
<given-names>Carolyn J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff16">
<sup>16</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff17">
<sup>17</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Merow</surname>
<given-names>Cory</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff18">
<sup>18</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff19">
<sup>19</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Purvis</surname>
<given-names>Andy</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8609-6204</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff20">
<sup>20</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff21">
<sup>21</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Schifferle</surname>
<given-names>Katrin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0000-8545-077X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff15">
<sup>15</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Semple</surname>
<given-names>Alice E.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12">
<sup>12</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Serra-Diaz</surname>
<given-names>Josep M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Travis</surname>
<given-names>Justin M. J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff22">
<sup>22</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff23">
<sup>23</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wintle</surname>
<given-names>Brendan A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff24">
<sup>24</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zurell</surname>
<given-names>Damaris</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4628-3558</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff15">
<sup>15</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff25">
<sup>25</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Urban</surname>
<given-names>Mark C.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff18">
<sup>18</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff19">
<sup>19</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff25">
<sup>25</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bocedi</surname>
<given-names>Greta</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12">
<sup>12</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff25">
<sup>25</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Center for Open Geographical Science, Department of Geography, San Diego State University, San Diego, California, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Instituto de Biología Subtropical, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas,  Universidad Nacional de Misiones; Puerto Iguazú, Misiones, Argentina</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne,  Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Ecological Modelling, Bonner Institute of Organismal Biology, Department Plant Biodiversity, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Pyrenean Institute of Ecology, Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Jaca, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Centre for Statistics in Ecology, the Environment and Conservation, Department of Statistical  Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, Cape Town, South Africa</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>Botanical Institute of Barcelona, Spanish National Research Council and the Natural Science Museum of Barcelona Consortium, Barcelona, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11">
<label>11</label>
<addr-line>CSIRO Environment, Canberra, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff12">
<label>12</label>
<addr-line>School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff13">
<label>13</label>
<addr-line>Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff14">
<label>14</label>
<addr-line>Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff15">
<label>15</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff16">
<label>16</label>
<addr-line>Central Queensland University, Gladstone, Queensland, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff17">
<label>17</label>
<addr-line>University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff18">
<label>18</label>
<addr-line>Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff19">
<label>19</label>
<addr-line>Center of Biological Risk, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff20">
<label>20</label>
<addr-line>Biodiversity Futures Lab, Natural History Museum, London, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff21">
<label>21</label>
<addr-line>Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff22">
<label>22</label>
<addr-line>Conservation Ecology Group, Department of Biosciences, Durham University, Durham, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff23">
<label>23</label>
<addr-line>Faculty of Forestry, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff24">
<label>24</label>
<addr-line>School of Ecosystem and Forest Science, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff25">
<label>25</label>
<addr-line>These authors contributed equally to this work.</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>02</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>38</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Santiago José Elías Velazco et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5033/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5033/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5033/egusphere-2026-5033.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5033/egusphere-2026-5033.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Model intercomparisons are emerging as a powerful approach to improve our understanding of biodiversity and ecosystem responses to global changes, thereby supporting policy design and decision-making. However, efforts to date have focused on climate change impacts on species richness at a global scale, while regional impacts remain comparatively understudied. To address this gap, we propose a protocol for a biodiversity model intercomparison project focused on regional-to-continental scale patterns of species abundance and occurrence across space and time. This protocol covers a continuum of modeling approaches, ranging from correlative to process-explicit models. We detail the standardized input data used for model calibration &amp;ndash;climate, land-use, and biodiversity data&amp;ndash; and outline a common framework for model validation and performance assessment. Our protocol is structured in two phases. The first phase involves model specification, calibration, and validation using historical data, together with counterfactual experiments designed to attribute observed changes in population abundance and occurrence to different environmental drivers. In the second phase, model projections are compared under future climate and land-use scenarios. This two-phase approach enables direct comparison of model predictive performance on common benchmark data, providing an empirical basis for assessing confidence in future projections. By combining regional-scale biodiversity time series, common calibration and out-of-sample validation, and explicit representation of ecological processes, this protocol advances regional biodiversity model intercomparisons and sets the stage to reveal fundamental insights into which models, processes, and drivers determine historical and future biodiversity dynamics.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="38"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Deutsches Zentrum für integrative Biodiversitätsforschung Halle-Jena-Leipzig</funding-source>
<award-id>518316503</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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<back>
</back>
</article>