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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5032</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>New and existing covariance estimation techniques for ensemble data assimilation</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gilpin</surname>
<given-names>Shay</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Morzfeld</surname>
<given-names>Matthias</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2257-8930</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lin</surname>
<given-names>Kevin K.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Mathematics, University of Arizona, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Mechanical &amp; Aerospace Engineering, Princeton University, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Cecil H. and Ida M. Green Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>21</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>29</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Shay Gilpin et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5032/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5032/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5032/egusphere-2026-5032.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5032/egusphere-2026-5032.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Covariance estimation from a small number of samples is a challenging, but necessary task in ensemble data assimilation (DA) and a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. Many covariance estimation methods have been developed in geophysics and in statistics, with little exchange of ideas between the two fields. Covariance estimation in statistics and in ensemble DA rely on fundamentally different assumptions, and we study the efficiency and applicability of both approaches to covariance estimation in systematic numerical experiments. Our numerical experiments are designed to feature a correlation structure in which correlation decays with distance globally, but the rate of decay is location-dependent. &amp;nbsp;In such cases, our findings suggest that methods that make even minimal assumptions on the decay of spatial correlations are more accurate than those that do not do so at all. &amp;nbsp;We also describe how to use a generalized Gaspari-Cohn correlation function to design new covariance estimation methods that capture intricate and spatially varying correlation structures and thereby further reduce covariance estimation errors.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="29"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Science Foundation</funding-source>
<award-id>DMS-1937229</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Simons Foundation</funding-source>
<award-id>MP-TSM- 00002687</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>Office of Naval Research</funding-source>
<award-id>N000142512298</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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<back>
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</article>