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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-5018</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Downstream development of extratropical transition of tropical cyclones over the Southern Hemisphere</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jin</surname>
<given-names>Chenhui</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3660-5709</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ritchie</surname>
<given-names>Elizabeth A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Barnes</surname>
<given-names>Michael A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Holbrook</surname>
<given-names>Neil J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3523-6254</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century and School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century and Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>31</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>30</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Chenhui Jin et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5018/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5018/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5018/egusphere-2026-5018.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5018/egusphere-2026-5018.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>&lt;p class=&quot;p1&quot;&gt;Tropical cyclones (TCs) occasionally move into the midlatitudes and transition into extratropical cyclones. The process is known as extratropical transition (ET), which can affect the weather further downstream. The present study conducts a climatological analysis of the dynamics of the downstream development associated with ET over the Southern Hemisphere. These ET events are objectively identified and further grouped into four distinct ET clusters using &lt;em&gt;K&lt;/em&gt;-means clustering. ET events in clusters 2 and 3 cause pronounced downstream development. The dynamics of the TC-midlatitude flow interaction are diagnosed from both potential vorticity (PV) and eddy kinetic energy (&lt;em&gt;K&lt;sub&gt;e&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/em&gt;) perspectives. From the PV viewpoint, the anticyclonic PV tendency due to the PV advection by diabatically-driven divergent outflow contributes substantially to downstream ridge amplification, supplemented by the nonlinearities arising from PV anomalies advected by flow induced by PV anomalies. From the &lt;em&gt;K&lt;sub&gt;e&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/em&gt; viewpoint, the transitioning TC injects additional &lt;em&gt;K&lt;sub&gt;e&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/em&gt; through baroclinic conversion into the midlatitude flow. The energy is then distributed by ageostrophic geopotential fluxes downstream, thereby amplifying the downstream wave packet. We identified two different pathways of downstream development. One pathway (cluster 2) exhibits a classic picture of downstream development, with Rossby wave packets amplifying and propagating farther downstream along a strong and straight jet, whereas the other pathway (cluster 3) is more localised and characterised by a pronounced ridge immediately downstream. These distinct pathways appear to be predominantly determined by the characteristics of the jet, in which the more pronounced downstream ridge is associated with a weak, short, and poleward-orientated jet. Furthermore, our results show that the strong ET events in the southwest Indian Ocean downstream can cause significantly enhanced high-impact weather frequency over Australia.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Australian Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>CE230100012</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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